Conversely, the chart would suggest a correction sooner or later, with overbought conditions having dominated in recent weeks. Friday’s peak above ¥182 was the highest price for pound-yen in more than seven years, even before the Brexit referendum, and with all three saturation signals clearly visible it would traditionally be a big risk to buy…
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The chart itself definitely suggests that the euro has reached a plateau and might decline in the near future. Momentum to the upside has been low since the middle of January and the price has hovered in overbought for weeks while volume and ATR have both dropped significantly. Based on TA alone, one might expect…
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However, sentiment on monetary policy and economic conditions has changed rapidly over the last few days, so it makes sense in the context not to rely too much on the chart. In the unlikely event of a significant revision upward in American GDP for the second quarter, the price might push sharply lower in the…
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The hawkish scenario of a triple hike on Wednesday seems to be almost universally priced in, so a case of ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ might apply for the dollar that evening and the euro might make at least a small bounce. As noted above, though, it’s the press conference that seems to be…
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The situation on the chart has followed these changing fundamentals quite closely, with the euro making gains over the last week to a high of around a month, breaking clearly above $1.01 and the 50-day moving average from Bands. There seems to be more scope for the common currency to continue upward and possibly test…
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The obvious near-term resistance here is the value area between the 100 and 200 SMAs. Whether this might be tested on Wednesday morning is likely to depend on how markets perceive the accompanying commentary from Dr Orr and other senior members of the RBNZ, not just whether the cash rate is hiked as expected. Lower…
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While a retest of the multi-year low around ¥6.36 doesn’t seem likely in the immediate future, a movement above the 200 SMA is also unfavourable. With no sign of saturation and the significant low quite close, consolidation with the value area between the 50 and 100 SMAs seems to be possible in the absence of…
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The downtrend for EURGBP continues to be very strong from a technical perspective, with clearer spaces forming between the 50, 100 and 200 SMAs and price extending below the 38.2% area of the weekly Fibonacci fan. Oversold is an important concern for new sellers here, though, with the slow stochastic (15, 5, 5) having displayed…
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From a technical perspective, the uptrend still seems to be active on this timeframe: there has been no clear breach of the 100 SMA. However, price has now moved out of oversold based on both Bollinger Bands (50, 0, 2) and the slow stochastic (15, 5, 5), so more losses this week might be expected…
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There seems to be more room for gains here by the US dollar from a technical point of view. Moving averages are below the price, with none except the 200 SMA having offered significant resistance in the second half of January, and the 50 SMA from Bands is about to complete its golden cross of…
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