Background Monday's GBPUSD upside failure was not extended yesterday. Overall, Tuesday was the fifth day in a row that saw prices consolidate after last Tuesday's powerful rise. Until last week's peak is broken our signals for sentiment cannot be strongly positive but the limited nature of profit-taking and the support of the 200-day line does…

BackgroundDespite analysts' persistent worries over such things as lower-than expected US fourth-quarter GDP growth of 2.1%, lowered corporate earnings forecasts, rising interest rates and so forth, the equity market might be prompted to extend its 5.5% year-to-date gains.Yesterday, the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (SPY) cleared its 30-day moving average on above-average volume and might be…

Background The US administration announced on Monday that it would impose a 20% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber imports to US, alleging that Canada unfairly subsidises its timber producers. (See separate story here.)The news knocked the Canadian dollar and boosted prices of lumber futures. It also creates a trading opportunity in lumber futures, as outlined…

Background Trading in USDCAD was volatile on Monday. Initial losses mounted to more than 1 big figure and USDCAD was driven back to its 13 day moving average. But that crucial point proved important as, in line with this week's forecast, fresh buyers were attracted near that point. The resulting resumption of the upside took…

BackgroundThe probability of a rate rise by the US Federal Open Market Committee on June 14 jumped from 50% to 65% post the French election result as risk appetite resurfaced across global markets. But the “hard” data out of the US has yet to back up the “soft” data coming from surveys (or election results). Today…

Day trade / Sell Trade view / 11 hours ago Analyst / PIA First United Kingdom Instrument: USDCAD Price target: 1.3400 Market price: 1.3466 BackgroundUSDCAD looks prime for a counter-trend short entry today but the medium-term bias remains bullish.  Monthly – Highlights a disjointed bearish Gartley formation. The move higher from May 2016 has been…

Short term / Buy Trade view / Friday at 6:37 GMT Analyst / PIA First United Kingdom Instrument: USDCHF Price target: 1.0400 Market price: 0.9986 BackgroundGoing into the French presidential election, we are looking at USDCHF today. This pair is near -1 correlated with EURUSD. Dip buying this morning (with a tight stop) offers a…

BackgroundAs expected, Wednesday’s minor setback for GBPUSD proved to be only temporary. Yesterday saw the market attract fresh buying interest below 1.2800 and although the resulting upside was not extensive, Wednesday’s decline was mostly regained. This has kept Cable above the 200 day moving average and near the top of a positive daily Keltner channel.…