The magnitude of the current bounce suggests considerable institutional involvement, which is practically unknown in the week before a major event such as the NFP. That suggests in turn that the reaction to the job report could also be extremely strong, so the most conventional wisdom of waiting for the dust to settle after a…
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However, sentiment on monetary policy and economic conditions has changed rapidly over the last few days, so it makes sense in the context not to rely too much on the chart. In the unlikely event of a significant revision upward in American GDP for the second quarter, the price might push sharply lower in the…
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The hawkish scenario of a triple hike on Wednesday seems to be almost universally priced in, so a case of ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ might apply for the dollar that evening and the euro might make at least a small bounce. As noted above, though, it’s the press conference that seems to be…
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The situation on the chart has followed these changing fundamentals quite closely, with the euro making gains over the last week to a high of around a month, breaking clearly above $1.01 and the 50-day moving average from Bands. There seems to be more scope for the common currency to continue upward and possibly test…
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Key data this week Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol. Wednesday 24 August 12:30 GMT: durable goods orders (July) - consensus 0.6%, previous 1.9% Thursday 25 August 6:00 GMT: German quarterly GDP growth (final, Q2) - consensus nil, previous 0.8% 6:00 GMT: German annual GDP growth (final, Q2) - consensus 1.4%, previous…
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A sustained bounce seems unlikely in the runup to the NFP, but the chart also suggests some positivity. There was some follow through on the bounce from oversold and stochastic crossover around the middle of last month, with the price now still not quite overbought. Volume has increased compared to Q2’s average. The next main…
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The main downtrend is still active with the price below all of the 50, 100 and 200 SMAs, but there is no longer any sign of oversold from either the slow stochastic or Bollinger Bands; the former at around 65 is between neutral and overbought. The next movement for EURUSD depends on the reaction to…
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With US Earnings season kicking off this week with JP Morgan expected to open the season announcement on Thursday 14th July. With US CPI and Retail Sales data also expected later in the week on Wednesday and Friday respectively, Exness Senior Market Analyst Terence Hove advised that “we are likely to see volatility in the…
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On the chart, the picture is generally neutral aparts from moving averages. Volume is low so far this week and the slow stochastic is almost exactly neutral at just above 50. The 50 SMA is the main technical reference at the moment, with movement above there unlikely unless traders receive positive new information of some…
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The technical picture remains unambiguously negative, with a fresh two-year closing low of $1.0825 on Tuesday. The next key support is the psychological area of $1.07 near the 100% Fibonacci retracement, i.e. full retracement of all the euro’s gains since March 2020. To the upside, any possible bounce in the next few weeks would probably…
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