Cross-border debt issuance the ‘norm’ by 2025, Aite Group report says


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T2S to transform European debt issuance, boost demand for European bonds / Eighty percent of respondents expect increased demand for multi-currency CSD services by 2025

Cross-border debt issuance will be the norm by 2025, according to a report published by global research and advisory firm Aite Group today. The report also indicates that TARGET2-Securities (T2S) will boost demand for European bonds and alter the European issuance landscape while Asia and the U.S. will continue to increase in strategic importance for international investors. The research paper is titled “The Future of Global Debt Issuance: 2025 Outlook” and was commissioned by Clearstream.

According to the report, T2S, coupled with the Central Securities Depositories Regulation (CSDR) will help harmonise the issuance process in Europe by stimulating more cross-border issuance and a level playing field for central securities depositories operating in Europe. In other important findings, the report found that 80% of respondents believe that there will be an increasing demand for multi-currency CSD services and other multi-currency services by investors in the next eight years as global capital flows increase.

Virginie O’Shea, research director of Institutional Securities & Investments, Aite Group, said:

Overall, the outlook for 2025 and beyond looks positive and dynamic for the issuance industry. The industry can anticipate growth in the international (Eurobond) market, in U.S., Asian, and European markets, and in cross-border issuance globally. It can also expect upticks in new instruments, such as green bonds and specific Asian bonds. Trends will likely be driven not only by global investor interests but also by developments in market infrastructure (policy) projects such as T2S in Europe.

Marc Robert-Nicoud, CEO of Clearstream Holding, commented:

The market research findings set out an interesting and attractive outlook for the primary markets in 2025 both at a global level and across Europe. While the market still needs time to adapt to the changed environment, we can see that the industry is beginning to identify the benefits of T2S going beyond settlement, i.e. for issuance in Europe. This is an encouraging sign for our goal of a Capital Markets Union.

Among the key findings of the report are:

  • The issuance landscape of 2025 and beyond is set to be even more dynamic. Industry participants can expect a much more global industry where cross-border issuance is the norm.
  • New and innovative instruments, such as new Asian bonds and Green bonds, are also likely to enjoy increased popularity among investors.
  • Asia and the U.S. will continue to increase in strategic importance for investors and issuers.
  • T2S will boost connectivity between investors and a larger range of end-investors and lead to higher demand for European bonds.
  • Eighty percent of respondents support the idea of a multicurrency CSD given the anticipated increase in global flows.
  • Seventy percent feel that infrastructure availability today is a factor of importance. ICSD and CSD track record, is also an important consideration for most large issuers.
  • Financial regulation and tax legislation also have a strong influence on market selection today – over half of respondents indicate that regulation is “very important” and half cite tax legislation as important.
  • Technology is considered a less important driver for change, with most citing a greater desire for flexibility than automation. Documentation production and “smart contracts” are cited as potential areas where technology could provide growth and savings.

Methodology:

This white paper is based on market intelligence captured by Aite Group during interviews with a range of firms engaged in the primary market space and supported by data provided by Dealogic. Both issuers and those engaged in supporting the issuance process that are active in the global financial markets participated in the research, which involved discussions with 20 such firms. The majority of the respondents are focused on deal supporting or initiating the issuance process. Three-quarters of respondents work for financial institutions, and the rest work for law firms and industry associations.

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Cross-border debt issuance the ‘norm’ by 2025, Aite Group report says

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