According to currency analyst Luca Santos at ACY Securities, the CPI forecasts predict an inflation decline to 3.25% by the fourth quarter of 2024. A reduction would ensure the decreased inflation target for the further quarter of 2025 is met. Although the change is barely discernible, it implies that the RBA and other financial authorities…
Read more
Market Expects No Further Hikes in 2023 According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, market participants now overwhelmingly expect that the Fed’s hikes for 2023 are over. There is currently a 78% probability of a pause in September, a 65.7% probability of a pause in November, and a 61.4% probability of a pause in December. Interestingly,…
Read more
The focus for the Fed’s press conference on Wednesday night is on whether there’s any hint about a hike in the fourth quarter. Traders mostly expect this to be the last hike of this cycle for the moment, but it’s likely that the consensus will change at least slightly after Jerome Powell’s comments. Friday’s PCE…
Read more
On the technical side, the price on the chart is currently in a correction status after reaching a yearly high of around $1.31. The Stochastic oscillator is in the extreme overbought levels for the last 10 sessions indicating that a correction to the downside might still have some more power into it. On the other…
Read more
Technical View: Markets to Watch for the Week Ahead Currencies: US Dollar Testing Monthly Support It has been quite a week for the US dollar. Consistent with the US Dollar Index—a geometrically-weighted average of the dollar’s value against a basket of six major currencies, including Europe’s single currency—the greenback plunged -2.3% last week, marking its…
Read more
Short-Term Price Action Edging North of $1.31 As evident from the H1 timeframe, buyers and sellers are squaring off around the $1.31 level, following the (almost) one-sided push north after retesting the widely watched $1.30 psychological base in early London. Overhead resistance is at $1.3154, while support can be seen at $1.3055, together with a…
Read more
Price Action Closing in on Daily Demand Across the page on the daily chart, you might recall that I noted the possibility of a sell-off emerging from channel resistance extended from the high of $214.00, which was accompanied by negative divergence from the RSI. You may also recall that recent writing pointed to the possibility…
Read more
On the technical side, the price on the chart has been making consistent gains since early March with multiple retests to break the upward trendline without being able to do so. This shows the strength of the quid against the dollar in the medium outlook. The 50 day moving average is still trading bove the…
Read more
Technical View: Markets to Watch for the Week Ahead Currencies: US Dollar Eyeing the 101.92 Low With Friday’s one-sided decline, it was a disappointing week for the Dollar Index, down -0.6%. Trend studies on the monthly timeframe show price action has been northbound since bottoming in 2008 at 70.70. Q4 (2022), as you can see,…
Read more
USOIL, daily Oil prices are on the rise after Saudi Arabia and Russia announced supply cuts for August. Saudi Arabia extended its voluntary production cut of one million barrels per day (bpd) for another month, while Russia announced it would reduce its oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August. Both countries are trying to prop…
Read more