Monex Survey: US investors to become bullish if Republican candidate for president elected

International provider of online trading services Monex Group, Inc. (TYO:8698) has earlier today published the findings of The Twentieth Monex Global Retail Survey, conducted from February 24, 2016 to March 7, 2016.

The latest edition of the survey, covering investors in Japan, China (Hong Kong) and the United States, paid special attention to the potential impact of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election on investment attitudes. The results showed that a high percentage of U.S. retail investors would become bullish if the Republican candidate was elected, whereas a high percentage would become bearish if the Democratic candidate was elected.

  • US presidential election

When asked what impact the election of a Republican candidate or Democratic candidate as U.S. president would have on their investment decisions, the majority of respondents said that both scenarios would have “No impact.” However, the percentage of U.S. retail investors who would become bullish if a Republican candidate became president and the percentage who would become bearish if a Democratic candidate became president were both high, surpassing 30%.


  • DI of retail investors in all three regions turns negative

The Diffusion Index: the percentage of respondents who answered “Stock market will become better” minus the percentage of respondents who answered “Stock market will become worse”, has declined from the previous survey, turning negative in all three regions. The forecast DI of retail investors in Japan became negative for the first time since the June 2012 survey. The last time the forecast DI of retail investors in all three regions turned negative was at the time of the December 2011 survey.


  • In all regions, retail investors expect stocks to appreciate in the U.S.

In tune with the previous survey, retail investors in all regions answered that the U.S. was the region that would most likely see stock appreciation in the next three months.

  • The percentage of retail investors forecasting a stronger yen increased in all regions

The currency which investors in the U.S. and China (Hong Kong) saw as being most likely to increase in value in the coming three months was still the U.S dollar in both regions, as in the previous survey (conducted from November to December 2015). However, the percentage that answered U.S. dollar was lower than in the previous survey, while the percentage of investors who forecast a stronger yen was higher in both regions. The percentage of investors in Japan who anticipate a stronger yen also rose from the previous survey.


You can view the full text of the Twentieth Monex Global Retail Investor Survey by clicking here.

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