This barometer serves to indicate the forecasts of financial traders regarding the November 2016 presidential election in the United States.
The data is based on the political market IG has established for clients to trade on which covers who will win the US presidential election.
Interestingly, IG clients have a proven track record in correctly forecasting political events. In 2012, they correctly predicted Barack Obama’s Presidential election victory and Boris Johnson’s London Mayoral election victory. IG clients also correctly predicted a victory for the “No” vote in the Scottish independence referendum in 2014.
The company explains that the data will be published at regular intervals ahead of the election. It will shed light on the likelihood of the candidates for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations becoming the next US President at the final polls on November 8, 2016.
The latest data shows that according to IG clients, Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidential election have decreased to 13% from 20%. Hilary Clinton stays the front runner to become the next US President at 54%.
The announcement from IG Group can be viewed by clicking here.