USD/JPY: Digesting its recent rise
• USD/JPY has failed to hold above the key resistance at 104.13, suggesting a weakening short-term buying interest. A break of the hourly support at 103.50 (22/08/2014 low) would confirm a deterioration of the short-term technical structure. Another support lies at 102.91 (intraday low). A resistance now stands at 104.49 (25/08/2014 high).
• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. The break to the upside out of the consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 favours a resumption of the underlying bullish trend. Strong resistances can be found at 105.44 (02/01/2014 high) and 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).
AUD/USD: Monitor the resistance at 0.9345
• AUD/USD made an intraday bullish reversal (hammer) last Thursday, confirming significant buying interest near the support at 0.9239. Monitor the resistance at 0.9345, as a break would validate a short-term double-bottom formation with a target at 0.9450. Another resistance lies at 0.9374. An hourly support can be found at 0.9272 (26/08/2014 low).
• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 (see also the 200 day moving average) and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. The current succession of lower highs since early July 2014 favours a bearish bias.
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