In our new Internet Age, news cycles often turn over so quickly that yesterday’s storylines are soon forgotten, along with any important dates that could loom large in the future. Such is the case with Bitcoin, and particularly so since price behavior tends to gyrate wildly whenever news event of interest occur. For traders and investors that do follow projected event calendars, those dates tend to be for economic releases that have been tracked on a multitude of websites. For Bitcoin, there are five significant dates to record as reminders – four dates stretch out over the remainder of 2019, while the last one is a special “happens-once-every-four-years” event scheduled for May 2020.
23 September 2019
After much anticipation and three recorded delays, the Bakkt crypto exchange finally has an official launch date. The brainchild of ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Bakkt represents all that is good in operating protocols, security, and most importantly, futures contracts that are physically settled “in kind”. The new crypto exchange will set the standard that all 200+ unregulated exchanges in the global crypto network should aspire to. It will also provide the “tools” that institutional investors, the “players” with large amounts of capital to invest, expect. Bakkt will begin with two varieties of Bitcoin futures contracts, daily and monthly, with other cryptos to follow. For “Big Money” boys on the crypto sidelines, they now will have a preferred point of access.
13 October 2019
The SEC has stalled making a decision on a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) for Bitwise Asset Management application for its 240-day maximum allowed under the law. The SEC has been “uncomfortable” with as many as 25 requests that it has denied, citing industry volatility, potential for price manipulation, lack of monitoring software in exchanges, poor security when it comes to custody of digital assets, and supposed domination of the market by overseas unregulated entities. Bitwise has submitted research that either resolves these claims or notes industry progress on all open issues. An ETF would allow the public and money managers, who control the investment of the majority of assets in America, to have easy access to safe, secure Bitcoin ownership.
18 October 2019
Bitwise is not the only ETF proposal decision pushed out to its maximum date. Just five days after it rules on Bitwise, it must issue its decision on the application submitted in January by the CBOE and the consortium of VanEck and SolidX. It is unclear if either of the two proposals has a fighting chance this time around, but the back-to-back decisions by the SEC could rock Bitcoin price behavior, something on the order of a DOL Non-Farm Payroll release in the equity world, but multiplied by a factor of ten or more.
28 October 2019
In March of 2014, Mt. Gox, the first and largest crypto exchange at the time, lost 850,000 BTC in a professional hacking scheme that shocked the Bitcoin world. Fortunately, the exchange’s Rehabilitation Trustee, Nobuaki Kobayashi, and his team located 200,000 BTC hidden away in an old digital wallet. He has liquidated large amounts of these reserves in order to repay clients, but the revelation of a detailed plan of distribution was recently given a six-month extension. According to CryptoSlate: “On October 28, Kobayashi will have to submit a plan detailing the timing and method of repaying roughly 24,000 creditors who were affected by the 2011 hack and the exchange’s subsequent collapse.” Imagine the impact of $2 billion of new capital in any marketplace, although the timing and method of repayment are yet to be disclosed.
17 May 2020
As we recently reported: “A “halving” event occurs every four years for Bitcoin. During its first four years of existence, 50 bitcoins were issued every ten minutes, a mining “reward”, so to speak. Every four years, this amount is cut in half, which has earned the name of a “halving event”. As of 17 May 2020, the mining reward will be cut in half again, from its present amount of 12.5, down to 6.25. The argument follows that, as fewer BTC are issued and if all things remain equal, existing demand will drive prices northward, based on the basic supply and demand dynamics in a marketplace.” Based on previous examples, prices could rise six months prior to May, but then the “halving premium”, so to speak, could dissipate over the last remaining two months.
Circle these important dates on your investment calendar. There could be more to add, as well, but these dates will definitely impact pricing in the crypto market, whether negatively or positively, and set the stage for the ensuing months ahead.