Bitcoin enthusiasts received an emotional lift today, as Bitcoin briefly tested its upper ranging boundary of $8,200. It has been locked in a tight $600 zone for a week from $7,500 to $8,100, displaying exhaustion and an apparent inability regain momentum from its previous bull run. Traders are beginning to lose patience, while analysts counsel that patience is exactly what is needed for times like these.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is in a critical decision zone. Its next demonstrative move could be up or down.Analysts are searching for answers in their charts, shifting to shorter timeframes to get early hints, as to what might come in the near-term. Here is a 4-Hour example of the “BTC/USD” trading pair:
In the past week, Bitcoin has challenged the $8,200 level on three occasions, only to be lightly rebuffed. The same can be said for support at $7,500, as well. The last five candlesticks denote a nice push move, which was not foreseen yesterday. Analysts were fearful before this push that a crossing of the 50 and 200 period moving averages, an impending bearish signal, would cause BTC to drop like a rock. The opposite took place. Bitcoin surprised again. It now rests at $8,140, having remained above $8,000 for nearly 24 hours, a good sign of support.
The $8,100 to $8,300 level is very key to what happens next. Since it topped out at nearly $9,100 and then found support at $7,500, the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels are equivalent. This region is often called the “Decision Zone”, since reversals, whether up or down, generally take place here. The probabilities favor this proposition, but odds are by no means absolute. The Bollinger Band mid-range also falls within this zone at the moment, providing another nice technical nod for BTC.
Crypto podcaster and trader Brian Krogsgard, also known on Twitter as LedgerStatus, summarized the building consensus in the analyst community:
We’re basically trying to see if we are going to just keep consolidating at this higher level and push for a new leg up, or if it’s truly a topping pattern. A key level would be if we breach above around $8,200 on a daily level.
Krogsgard also added these sentiments:
For the most part, I’m just looking for consolidation and dip-buying opportunities. I wouldn’t say $8,000 bitcoin is a particularly attractive place to buy. We’re fairly far from the mean, if you will, as in, we’ve moved fast so far this year, so I think that there will probably be cheaper places to buy, but it’s certainly possible we have another leg up. I know that’s saying both things at once, but we’re due for a correction. Even in bull markets, corrections of 30-40% are normal, so I’m waiting for when that occurs. It could be now, with an outside chance of another high, maybe into that $9,600 range first.
These comments are only one man’s opinion of Bitcoin’s status. Here are a few more brief retorts for today’s price action:
- The Crypto Dog, his crypto-analyst pseudonym on Twitter: “Patience will pay off, we’ll get a clear direction for the market soon enough.”
- Josh Rager, a prominent cryptocurrency analyst, who has been cited many times over the past few weeks about the need for a 30%+ correction: “In my opinion, the more it goes sideways, the more likely it’s accumulation”.
- One summary of several analysts’ opinions: “The bitcoin price, for now, has entered a bias conflict zone, wherein its probability of trending sideways is growing higher in the absence of stronger volume. Traders are waiting for big whales to set the next course of bitcoin trend. But nobody exactly knows the direction the price would pursue: north or south”.
- Victor Dergunov, the founder of Albright Investment Group: “Primarily, similar low volatility phenomenon has occurred in the very late stages of bitcoin bear markets. Everyone seemingly loses interest, volume dries up, news flow quiets down, and then, when you least expect it, the next bitcoin bull market begins”.
Patience is the obvious watchword. It was encouraging to see a positive burst from Bitcoin, but buying at these levels is ill advised at the moment. As we have noted before, the longer the ranging period, the greater the strength of the breakout, either up or down.