Was Kate’s pregnancy leaked early to save Scotland (and the Pound)?

Nothing is ever simple and straightforward when it come to the Royal Family, certainly not when it comes to Royal pregnancies and babies.

And yesterday’s revelation that Kate (nee Middleton ) Duchess of Cambridge is pregnant with the Royal Couple’s second child – who will become the fourth in line to the British Throne – is no different.

Normally, mothers-to-be keep pregnancies within the immediate family until after three months, at the beginning of the second trimester. So William and Kate’s announcement when Kate is not yet 12 weeks pregnant has the UK blogosphere wondering ‘Why so early’? (Although about-to-be big brother George also had his pregnancy announcement made a little earlier than usual).

The official word is that the announcement had to be made now because Kate is now unable to attend some scheduled events due to a severe case of morning sickness, something she also suffered with in her first pregnancy.

However some conspiracy theorists – and there are many when it comes to the worlds of Royal watchers and currency traders alike – believe that the pregnancy was leaked early to generate pro-UK and pro-Royal Family sentiment at a time when it is dearly needed – to both prop up the sliding Pound and to return some momentum to the ‘No’ vote.

After trailing badly most of the summer, Scotland’s pro-independence vote has gained momentum the past couple of weeks, for the first time pulling ahead in polls ahead of next week’s Scotland independence referendum September 18.

Scotland referendum poll

And with the pro-independence polls moving up the British Pound has been moving down – from the 1.70 range for the GBPUSD back in late July to the 1.60 area now – a very big move indeed.

GBPUSD Sept2014

GBPUSD, past month. Source: Google Finance.

It looks like it will be a race to the wire in the Scotland independence vote – and with that uncertainty hanging over the market we expect more volatility overall in the currency markets. And following the vote, there will likely be a step up (No vote) or down (Yes vote) in the value of the Pound against other major currencies.

Should be an interesting couple of weeks in the currency markets.

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