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As Great Britain’s citizens, political classes and financial services sector sit on the edge of their metaphorical chairs in anticipation as to whether the United Kingdom will be a kingdom far less united in days to come, three prominent global banks which are renowned for their elevated position within the FX industry, have expressed their adamant perspectives.
Credit Suisse, Nomura and Saxo Bank, all of whom are not intrinsically British companies and therefore would be considered impartial as far as nationalistic interests are concerned, have stated that Scotland will be plunged into a deep recession, with salary cuts and swathing unemployment should the nation ditch its union with England.
Nomura, the largest bank in Japan, has begun advising its clients to withdraw funds from the UK until after the poll in case the pound suffers extreme downturns in value.
According to a report today by the Daily Mail, a tourist taking £1,000 spending money to the US will soon get just $1,500 for their money, compared with $1,717 in July, under predictions from Credit Suisse and Denmark’s Saxo Bank.
Even at this stage, where Scotland is still firmly ensconsed as part of the United Kingdom, its unemployment figures are considerably higher than the other three nations (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) that serve to make up the union according to the Scottish Government.
Michael Saunders, an analyst at Citi has explained that global firms may be inclined to halt investment in Britain should the United Kingdom cease to exist in its current form. Indeed, Scotland’s economy is currently dependent on funding from south of the border, and has benefited from a great many social investment and political advantages over England, Wales and Northern Ireland since the Labor Party came to power in 1997, with a commonly held view that the large proportion of Scottish members of the party had an interest in subsidising Scotland’s otherwise weaker economy with revenue collected by Westminster, largely generated by the prosperous South East of England.
With London being the world’s largest financial center, home to the majority of large FX dealers, and currently considered to be within the same nation state as Scotland, going independent could render Scotland as a foreign nation, joining the ranks of Ireland, France, Germany, Belgium, Holland and Spain, all regions which make up Western Europe, but pretty much all devoid of a place on the global stage in world banking, electronic trading or financial technology.
With eight days to go until the vote that could end the 307-year-old union, major question marks remain about the stability of currency of an independent Scotland, what form it will take, or how much national debt it would take on.