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The following article is based on research by Marshall Gittler, Head of Investment Research for FXPRIMUS.
Super Tuesday US Presidential Primaries & Caucuses…
Today is the biggest single day for the US Presidential primaries, with 12 states and one territory participating. Polls close in most states at 00:00 GMT or 01:00 GMT Wednesday, although Alaska doesn’t finish until later. This one day allocates about one-half of the Republican delegates necessary to wi , and one-third of the Democratic delegates necessary to win.
Trump and Clinton are favored to win. In particular, because of the technicalities of the Democratic primary system, a big win by Clinton could sew up her candidacy. On the Republican side, the focus will be on Texas. If Senator Cruz can’t win big in his home state, then he will be pretty well defeated and the Republican contest will come down to Trump vs Rubio.
The most important point for the FX market is the performance of Democratic candidate Sanders. If he has a strong showing that challenges Clinton, then the market will have to start discounting a Trump vs Sanders scenario, which would probably be negative for the dollar. On the other hand, a strong showing by Clinton that pretty much clinches her candidacy might be USD-positive, as it is expected that she would beat Trump handily.