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Screenshot of a breaking news alert e-mail from Q2 2017
Well it looks like the bookmakers (and their betting clients) got it wrong.
Less than six months after bettors were solidly predicting a #Remain victory in the UK Brexit vote, down-to-the-wire predictions based on political binary betting at UK oddsmakers such as Paddy Power and IG Group Holdings plc (LON:IGG) – giving Hillary an 80%+ chance of winning late into yesterday’s vote – were way off once more.
While vote counting is still continuing, it looks like America has selected President Donald Trump to be #45.
And markets are reacting, as expected, in kind.
Reversing the past week’s risk-on trading, Far East equity markets and US and European equity index futures are turning deep into the red. As of the time of writing (7:30am GMT),
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 5.4%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down 2.5%
- FTSE 100 futures down 3.5%
- Dow Jones US futures down 2.9%
Currency markets were a little more subdued, although the US Dollar was clearly on the short end of early Wednesday trading. The benchmark EURUSD was up 1.7% to just above 1.1211.
The big currency loser, of course, was the Mexican Peso, which went into freefall, down about 13% versus the US Dollar, given President (Elect) Trump’s continued harsh words during the campaign towards America’s most populous neighbor.
Other expected risk-off trades were also apparent. Gold is trading up 3.4% to $1,319, and neo-safe-haven Bitcoin is also gaining, hitting $740.