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Screenshot of a breaking news alert e-mail from Q2 2017
With the latest US polls showing a too-close-to-call US Presidential election less than a week from the actual vote, the odds of a Hillary Clinton victory has been steadily dropping at some of the leading UK bookmakers taking bets on the election outcome.
As recently as two weeks ago some of the bookmakers were calling the election a ‘done deal’ in favor of the Hillary Clinton-Tim Kaine ticket. We had even reported that Paddy Power had decided to pay out more than $1 million in early winnings to those who bet on Clinton, stating that recent betting trends have shown one way traffic for Hillary and punters seemed to have called it 100 per cent correct.
There is no legal or contractual reason for bookmakers to pay out bets early, before the fact, like Paddy Power did. However in situations like this they sometimes will, to generate goodwill among their clients and as a marketing and PR tactic.
At the time, Paddy Power was still quoting 1:6 odds on Hillary (pay $6 to win $1 if she wins), equating to an 81% chance of Hillary emerging victorious. The Donald’s odds were 5:1, with very little money coming in.
However that was two weeks ago.
The recent further email scandal revelations have apparently dampened enthusiasm for Hillary, resulting in much closer poll numbers. The latest ABC News-Washington Post poll out yesterday actually gave Trump a slim 46%-45% lead. This was the same poll which gave Hillary a 13 point advantage just one week before.
Today, Paddy Power has Hillary at 4:11, and Trump at 9:4.
At financial spreadbetting firm IG Group Holdings plc (LON:IGG), their US election barometer based on IG’s political binary market has Hillary at just a 71% chance of winning (and dropping), as more real money has come in for Trump with the new poll numbers.