Monex Global Survey: Majority of investors expect Fed to hike rates this year

International provider of online trading services Monex Group, Inc. (TYO:8698) has just published the findings of the Nineteenth Monex Global Retail Survey, conducted from November 24 to December 7, 2015.

  • Fed expected to hike rates this year

Amid the key findings of the survey, which monitors investor mood and expectations in Japan, China (Hong Kong) and the United States, is that the majority of retail investors expect the Fed to hike the key interest rates this year.

When asked about the timing of hike in interest rates by the FRB, the highest percentage of investors in all three regions said they expected interest rates to start rising by the end of the year.


  • strongest_currency_insideGrowing percentages of investors in US and China (Hong Kong) expect the U.S. dollar to appreciate

Monex asked retail investors in the United States and China (Hong Kong) which currency they thought would be the strongest over the next three months. In both regions, the highest percentage of investors forecast that the U.S. dollar would appreciate the most. This tendency was particularly noteworthy in the United States, where nearly 80% answered “U.S. dollar,” a marked increase from the 60% of investors forecasting a strong dollar in our previous survey.

This trend is attributed to a rise in the number of investors expecting the dollar to rise ahead of the upcoming hike in U.S. interest rates.

  • In all three regions, most retail investors expect U.S. stocks to rise

In all regions, when asked in what area they expected equity price rises to be highest, most investors responded “the United States.” This was the first time such a trend has been evident in nine months, since Monex’s March 2015 report.

  • Diffusion index rises among retail investors in all three regions

The Diffusion Index: the percentage of respondents who answered “Stock market will become better” minus the percentage of respondents who answered “Stock market will become worse”, rose in all three regions in comparison to the previous survey (conducted in August–September 2015). The rise was particularly pronounced among investors in China (Hong Kong), with the DI turning positive and surging 32 points from the previous survey. Retail investors’ outlook for stock prices improved, reflecting improvements in global market conditions.


To view the full survey results, click here.

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