Monex Global Survey: Investors are skeptical about Chinese economic growth

Japanese online trading services provider Monex Group, Inc. (TYO:8698) has just published the results of its Eighteenth Monex Global Retail Investor Survey.

The latest survey, carried out between August 28 to September 7, 2015, was marked by the events that rattled the Chinese markets and the global markets, subsequently. That is why, the broker added one more question to the usual lineup and asked investors about their expectations regarding the Chinese economic growth.

  • Retail investors and China’s growth

Monex asked retail investors in the US, Japan, China (Hong Kong) about their outlook for China achieving its official GDP growth target of 7% for 2015. The percentage of investors who answered that it cannot be achieved was the highest in all regions, pointing to retail investors’ concerns about economic growth in China.


Monex also asked them about their views on the depreciation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar. Nearly 70% of retail investors in all regions answered that the renminbi would depreciate further against the U.S. dollar in the months ahead.

  • Retail investors and US economy

monex-1-180x150The percentage of retail investors who answered that the US was the region where there is the highest likelihood of stock price appreciation in the coming three months increased from the previous survey across all regions.

  • Retail investors and US rate hike expectations

The percentage of respondents who answered that the Fed would begin raising interest rates in September 2015 declined from the previous survey in all three regions. The number of investors who forecast the Fed to postpone the September rate hike reflecting the stock market turmoil appears to have risen.

  • US and Chinese (Hong Kong) retail investors and their forecasts of stronger currencies

Monex asked US and Chinese (Hong Kong) retail investors which currencies will rise the most in the coming three months.

Approximately 60% of the respondents chose the US dollar, and a greater percentage of retail investors in both regions forecast a stronger US dollar compared with the previous survey (in May and June 2015).

Another finding was that the percentage of investors who expected the euro to appreciate also rose in both regions. Monex attributes this to expectations of continued market turmoil.

  • Japanese investors and the USD/JPY

Monex asked Japanese investors about their forecast for the US dollar/ Japanese yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate in the next three months. The percentage of retail investors forecasting a stronger U.S. dollar and a weaker yen was 51%, down 11 points from the previous survey (the one from August 2015). The percentage of retail investors forecasting a stronger yen increased 10 points from the previous survey, to 22%, and a larger number of investors displayed a more cautious attitude.

To view the full report, click here.

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