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Screenshot of a breaking news alert e-mail from Q2 2017
As US voters head to the polls today with voter turnout fairly strong in key swing states, last minute UK bettors seem to be putting their money solidly on a Hillary Clinton victory.
UK bookmakers’ odds on Hillary are dropping today to the 1:5 range, indicating that bettors are calculating an 83% chance of a Hillary Clinton victory. The Donald is only getting a 17% chance of pulling off an upset.
By late October, most bookmakers had concluded that (at least based on betting patterns) a Hillary win was a done deal, but further email scandal revelations as late as last week saw those odds come in again, to the 4:11 range, indicating a 70% chance of Hillary Clinton becoming #45.
Odds calculated today at the political binary market operated by IG Group Holdings plc (LON:IGG) put Hillary at an 83.1% chance of winning, as more last minute money was coming in solidly on her behalf.
We’d remind our readers that the bookies got it wrong with the June Brexit vote. On the day of that vote, money was coming in mainly for the Remain side, which was given more than an 80% chance of winning the day. Final results were 52-48 in favor of #VoteLeave.
We’ll see what actually happens in just a few hours.