IG political trading market: Macron has 89% probability of winning France Round 2

The outcome of the French Election is now down to a head to head.

The latest prices in IG’s trading market on the election give the implied probability for the two candidates chances of victory as follows:

  • Macron – 89%
  • Le Pen – 11%

We would remind LeapRate readers that although these “polls” are based on real traders betting real money, in the past the final results of political markets trading at IG and other online brokers and gaming sites haven’t necessarily predicted the correct outcome. Most recently, day-of-vote trading in last June’s Brexit vote was heavily predicting an 80%+ chance of a “Stay” victory. (And hence our follow-up, Why the oddsmakers were wrong in predicting the #VoteLeave Brexit victory).

Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG Group Holdings plc (LON:IGG), provides an the outlook for markets over the next two weeks:

Chris Beauchamp, IG

Call it an unwinding of hedges put in before the election, call it a relief rally, or call it the working out of strong seasonality patterns. Whatever is used to describe the bounce across all stock markets this morning, it has certainly put the gloss back on risk appetite.

The reaction seems a bit strong for a result that chimed with what everyone was apparently expecting anyway. But we had seen markets suffer steady losses over the past month, usually April is a good month, with the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and DAX all historically strong. But the recent rally had begun to look jaded, with Donald Trump failing to deliver, and geopolitical concerns on the rise. Emmanuel Macron’s win doesn’t change anything outside France, and with a second round still to be run we are not out of the woods yet.

But the polls put him well ahead of rival Marine Le Pen for round two, and French pollsters have a good record behind them. Trump appears to be promising some kind of development on tax reform this week, which could provide more bullish momentum. US yields are picking up again, after a period of weakness, which should help the US banking sector, which itself has been hit hard over the past month.

Positioning has become more bearish in the last month, although it has yet to hit the highs of late October last year. This rally is not over yet, it seems, with the chance of one more push higher now very real, before markets hit the summer period, which, if not particularly negative, doesn’t usually see a strong bullish pattern.

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