Push & Pull: USD Pressure & EUR Strength

The Asian session saw equities climb to a fresh-two year high early on Tuesday on the back of an overnight rise in Wall Street fueled by reports that President Trump had disclosed classified information with the Russian Foreign Minister without necessary authorization from the source. This re-fueled the continued underlying uncertainties and reinforced doubts surrounding the Administration’s economic agenda. Oil continued extending extended gains following a pledge from the major producers Saudi Arabia and Russia to push for an extension of supply cuts into 2018.

EURUSD has broken the psychological 1.1000 level as a result of the likelihood of a shift in Eurozone economic policy for the second half of 2017. ECB Chief Economist Praet commented “that the balances of risk would be assessed at the June meeting”. However, he also stated that “the central bank would need to be very careful over removing policy accommodation”.

The dollar index continued lower trading around 98.55 with May’s low of 98.50 forming a slight support area. Per the latest CME Fedwatch; the expectations of a rate increase in June is now at a 73.8% probability compared to 84% last week.

With a degree of “risk-on” sentiment gold has seen a slight rise from early May lows of $1214 to trade just above $1234.

Today sees the release of UK CPI at 9:30 BST; forecast at 2.6% from the last release of 2.3% and US Housing Starts at 13:30 BST; expecting a minimal gain from the previous release.

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