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Screenshot of a breaking news alert e-mail from Q2 2017
Recently Trump’s leak scandal has been leading the USD move instead of economic performance. Last week USD had its biggest weekly fall since the US presidential election because of the scandal.
The markets are concerned it will result in Trump’s plans not being able to be executed and worsen the economic slowdown. In addition, North Korea launched its second ballistic missile towards Japan on Sunday further lifting regional tension.
The dollar index hit a new post presidential low of 96.68 on Monday, due to extended market concerns over the FBI investigation on Trump’s Russia leak scandal. On Tuesday, during early European session, it rebounded, however then followed by a retracement after testing the resistance level at 97.00.
On Tuesday, EUR/USD hit a new high of 1.1267 last seen on November 9. Per CFTC data released last Friday Euro long positions have reached a 3-year high. Gold has rebounded over the past two trading sessions touching a 3-day high of $1263.64 this morning.
The next move of USD will likely depend on the FOMC minutes, the progress of the FBI investigation into Trump’s Russia leak scandal, and upcoming economic data. If there are further adverse findings from the FBI’s investigation USD will likely see a further fall. Conversely, without further adverse findings, we will likely see a rebound of USD.
Despite the Trump scandal and soft economic data, per the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for a rate hike in June only saw a modest drop to 78.5%. That said, markets are assuming the Fed will stick to its rate hike pace regardless of political turmoil and economic slowdown. The FOMC May Meeting Minutes will be released at 19:00 BST on Wednesday May 24, we will likely get further clues about a June rate hike and economic outlook.
We will see a set of US economic data to be released between 14:45 – 15:00 BST this afternoon. It will likely affect USD and USD crosses.