The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Personal opinions today:
Last week, the US ADP reached 183,000, but on Friday, the official US non-farm payrolls fell sharply, only 20,000. It cannot reflect the accuracy of data published by the US official.
From the sub-item, the US officially announced that the number of private non-farm payroll was 25,000, and only 20,000 were left after the calculation of government job numbers. It means the number is fail to compare with private sector statistics.
Referring to the US unemployment rate in February and the average hourly wage, the two data showed good news. More importantly, in the average wages, the monthly rate and the annual rate increase, respectively, and the dollar is bullish. The employment ratio and inflation data are both above market expectations, and the US economic momentum continues. In addition, the new housing starts and construction permits announced that night recorded growth, It can believe the US dollar index is still strongly. Technically, the US dollar index can refer to 97.20 and 96.78 if adjustments.
On coming Tuesday and Wednesday, UK time, the British Parliament discussed and voted on the draft of the new Brexit agreement. At present, the outside world believes that the draft is highly vetoed. Finally, whether the UK will leave the European Union before the deadline of March 29, or postpone the Brexit. Or there is a second referendum on the Brexit, which will be decided after the British parliament vote. European currencies will face risks, risk aversion will heat up again, and gold and yen will likely be caught up. Whether the Swiss franc can become a next safe haven for European currencies, will be quoted one by one this Wednesday.
The European Central Bank announced a new monetary policy decision, the euro fell below 1.1265. The dollar is strong. The Brexit vote is imminent, and pessimism will inevitably affect the euro, leaving the euro at a downside risk. Technically, the euro failed to break the resistance of 1.1265, and the trend is still judged as a downward trend. In addition, the fundamentals have caused investors to worry that the euro may be affected by the risk of Brexit, so it is concerned that the euro has a chance to fall further against the dollar.
The British Parliament discussed the new Brexit agreement on Tuesday and voted on Wednesday. From the weekend, the EU’s attitude was tough, and most of the British parliament’s members of the House of Representatives expressed their stance, which was negative for the pound. The current news means that British parliamentarians continue to oppose the proposed amendments proposed by the British Prime Minister, and the pound continues to face downside risks. If the Brexit agreement was rejected this week, the UK could not extend the Brexit deadline, and there was no second referendum. The Brexit if without agreement would affect the further decline of the pound. Technically, 1.3020 and 1.3050 can be first set as important resistance references. If no breakthrough the resistance, the technical resistance of the pound can be moved below 1.2985 or 1.3000.
The European Central Bank’s new monetary policy, the US job data is still good, and the risk of Brexit is a negative European currency. The Swiss franc is subject to downside risks. But from another perspective, the Swiss franc may become a safe haven for this European risk.
If there is a problem with the euro and the pound, the funds may be transferred to the Swiss franc to hedge, so please pay attention. Technically, the USD/CHF has the opportunity to test resistance at 1.0105 or 1.0145, with reference to support at 1.0065 or 1.0025. It is recommended to pay attention to the Brexit discussion and voting results, paying attention to changes in the Swiss franc.
In the US job data, the number of non-farm payroll disappointed the market. In addition, the US president is not sure that the agreement with the Sino-US trade agreement and the risk of Brexit are approaching. The US Dow and Japan’s Nikkei are weak, naturally becoming safe-haven currencies, and the reason why the dollar weakens against the yen. If the news is not released and the current tight investment climate is changed, the USD/JPY may be developed towards the 109 level after the break the 110 level.
Before the release of US job data, the market was tense and the Australian dollar was bearish. At present, the situation seems to have eased, but the market is paying close attention to the next step of the Sino-US trade war. At present, the US president’s speeches and actions fail to convince the Sino-US trade war to end soon. Investing in the Australian dollar under uncertainty, It may believe the Australian dollar is weak against the US dollar.
Technically, since the 0.7050 support fell, the Australian dollar against the US dollar was weak, and had the opportunity to test 0.7005 and 0.6980 important support. If the 0.7050 and 0.7070 resistances break through, the trend is expected to reverse.
Technically, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are in similar trend. At present, the market is paying close attention to the development of Sino-US trade wars. If good news reappears, it is expected to boost the New Zealand dollar. In the short-term technical, attention to 0.6775 and 0.6758 support can be used as an important support reference.
Crude oil futures prices fell, Canadian job data failed to inspire the Canadian dollar, affecting the Canadian dollar continued to weaken, negative for the Canadian dollar. If crude oil prices continue to weaken, it may affect the development of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar in the short term. Technically refer to 1.3405 or 1.3385 support and 1.3460 or 1.3480 resistance as a preliminary analysis.
This week the British Parliament is preparing to vote on the Brexit agreement, and the Brexit agreement may be rejected. The market is looking forward to deadlines to resolve uncertainties and avoid further declines in the pound. However, the gap between the pound and the euro has widened, causing the euro to rise against the pound. It is recommended to pay attention to the Brexit news, dominate the trend with the pound, and affect the euro against the pound. At present, there is a possibility that the pound will fall further and it will also affect the euro. When investing in the euro against the pound, it must pay attention to large fluctuations.
The European Central Bank’s new monetary policy and the Brexit are unclear. The Swiss franc has the opportunity to become a safe haven for the euro. The euro is falling against the Swiss franc and the market is watching. Stay tuned for the Brexit news and the performance of the Euro, while affecting the volatility of the Euro against the Swiss Franc, so stay tuned.
The US officially released job data, and the number of non-farm payroll has dropped sharply.
On the other hand, the market is not expected to end the Sino-US trade war at the end of this month. The deadline for Brexit is imminent. These risk sentiments have increased, and gold has been pushed up as a reason for risk aversion. If the above risks cannot be resolved in the short term, it is estimated that the price of gold will probably push up to $1310. Current support is available at $1293 and $1290.
US crude oil futures
Last week, US crude oil inventories increased sharply, the risk of Brexit increased, the Sino-US trade war remained unresolved, and crude oil futures prices were downside. Technically, continue to pay attention to 55.05 support, with $55 as an important support. If you fail, you can refer to last week’s low of $54.49.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
The US officially released job data disappointed the market and also adjusted with the US Dow last week. In addition, there are reports that US President Trump may not be able to sign a trade agreement with China at the end of the month to end the trade war. Coupled with the approaching risk of Brexit and the tight investment sentiment, it is estimated that it will continue to bear negative stock market performance. Technically, the US Dow is in the downward development cycle and has the opportunity to test 25160 or 24480 support.
3680 / 3520 support
3925 / 4050 resistance
The US job data seems disappointed the market confidence, the dollar fell a bit and the price may be rise a bit. Keep in mind, if USD strengthen Bitcoin weakness. If the dollar depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin. Because the market still has no confidence to trade cryptocurrencies right now.
Enjoy and happy trade! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk. Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam, Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is: the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.