ATFX Forex weekly market update: February 18, 2019

forex market update

The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.

Personal opinions today:

Martin Lam ATFX

Martin Lam, ATFX

US Federal Reserve official said that if the US economy performs as expected, it is not necessary to raise interest rates during the year, indicating that the Fed is considering to stop interest rate hikes this year. After the US economic data released and the Fed officials spoke last Friday night, the dollar weaker, the US dollar index below 97. Coming Thursday, the Fed issued a statement of monetary policy meetings, and the market waited for the overall Fed and the Fed chairman’s comment of monetary policy. Moreover, the US economic data is weak and other Fed officials maintain weaker dollar’s speech, the dollar’s weakness will likely continue.

Today, the US President’s Day, the New York Stock Exchange is closed for one day. US Dow Jones Industrial Index futures US30, gold, silver and crude oil futures trading, early in the evening at 20:00. attention please!

In addition, there is no economic data released in the United States, and the market focus is on the forecast of European economic data tomorrow. It is believed that the Fed’s official dovish speech and expected European economic data will stabilize. In the short term, European currencies, commodity currencies and commodity prices are expected to keep rising.

Today’s suggestion:


1.1340/1.1355 resistance
1.1280/1.1265 support

Federal Reserve officials said that the Fed interest rate should remain at current levels, predicting that the US economy will continue to be stable and there is limited room for interest rate hikes. However, economic data in the Eurozone is still weak. In addition, the situation of Brexit, dragging down the economic development of Europe and limiting the rise of the euro. The market is watching the performance of the Eurozone economic data and the UK job data tomorrow. Technically, Euro 1.1340 is an important short-term resistance. If the fundamentals of the Eurozone have not improved, the Euro will hard to break through the resistance and maybe test the 1.12 level.


1.2935/1.2950 resistance
1.2865/1.2850 support

The Brexit procedure of the UK on March 29 was not sure, and it is believed that the pound is still weak and the rebound is weak. Although the pound has rebounded by the dollar’s decline, but it seems 1.2935 and 1.2950 are important resistance. It remains to be seen whether the market sentiment can be broken. If the fundamental situation continues, and even worse news, the pound against the dollar will have the opportunity to test the level of 1.2850 or below.


1.0070/1.0085 resistance
1.0030/1.0015 support

Federal Reserve officials commented that the dollar fell and supported the rise in the Swiss franc. However, the overall European economic and political factors have led to unstable market sentiment, and it is believed that the Swiss franc is still likely to fall. Technically, the USDCHF was consolidated after the 1.0095 or 1.0120 resistance range. The 61.8% adjustment is 1.0030 and 73.6% is 1.0015. The USD/CHF is expected to be an important support reference at 1.0015.


110.65/110.80 resistance
110.35/110.20 support

The Fed officials speech, it made the USDJPY adjusted. In addition, the market held this week’s China-US trade negotiation in Washington. It seems that market sentiment changed, the US Dow and the Nikkei index rose, and safe-haven funds flowed out of the yen. If the Asian stock market performs strongly during the day, it is estimated that the USD/JPY will have the opportunity to continue to test the 111 level. Technically, USD/JPY is focusing on 110.35 and 110.20 support.


0.7165/0.7180 resistance
0.7125/0.7110 support

The market sentiment changed and the Australian dollar rose. After the Fed officer comments, the dollar fell and the market expected progress in Sino-US trade negotiations, supporting the rise of the Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar rebounded 150% against the US dollar at 0.7165. If the market expects Sino-US negotiations to succeed, the Australian dollar is expected to continue to rise against the US dollar. Of course, the performance of the US economic data and the comments of the Fed officials cannot be ignored.


0.6905/0.6925 resistance
0.6855/0.6830 support

Last week, China-US trade negotiations made progress. At present, investment sentiment has improved and the New Zealand dollar continues to rise. If the next round of Sino-US trade negotiations continues to achieve this week, it is hoped that the New Zealand dollar will have the opportunity to break through the resistance of 0.6905. At present, it is recommended to pay close attention to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the performance of US economic data and the comments of Fed officers speeches.


1.3250/1.3270 resistance
1.3215/1.3195 support

The Fed monetary policy remarks, the dollar fell, and crude oil prices rose. Under the upward trend of US crude oil prices, the Canadian dollar was indirectly boosted. Tonight, Canada announced the national economic confidence index. The data performance and crude oil price trend will lead the development of the Canadian dollar. Technically, USDCAD at 1.3215 and 1.3195 are important support reference.


0.8780/0.8795 resistance
0.8745/0.8730 support

There are still uncertainties in the risk of Brexit, affecting the performance of the British pound. The UK will release important economic data tomorrow, and there is a downside risk to the pound, which has the opportunity to boost the euro against the pound. Technically, the euro broke the first significant resistance at 0.8780 against the pound and the next resistance was 0.8795. Paying attention to the support of 0.8730.


1.1355/1.1370 resistance
1.1330/1.1315 support

The euro zone was affected by Spain’s early elections. The euro’s performance was still weaker than that of the Swiss franc, and the euro against the Swiss franc continued to develop. Technically, focus on 1.1330 and 1.1315 support. If the market expects the euro zone economy to improve this week, the euro will strengthen, and the euro has a chance to test the 1.1370 resistance against the Swiss franc.


1326/1329 resistance
1319/1316 support

The Sino-US trade negotiations have made progress, and the relationship between the two countries has further improved, stimulating the rise of global stock markets. In theory, the global stock market investment atmosphere will improve, and there will be downside risks to gold and silver prices. However, affected by the Fed’s officers comments on dovish speech, the US dollar index fell, and the price of gold broke through the resistance to more than $1,320. At present, we are paying close attention to the speeches of other Fed officials. If the Fed officials continue to make doves before the release of the Fed’s monetary policy record on Thursday, it is believed that the price of gold is expected to rise further. On the contrary, it will probably fall. Technically, 1326 was at the end of last month. Today is the US President’s Day holiday, the New York Stock Exchange closed, and the gold and silver trading was closed at 20:00, attention please!

US crude oil futures

56.20/56.50 resistance
55.15/54.65 support

The Sino-US trade negotiations and the dovish speech of the Fed officials have once again boosted crude oil prices to nearly $56. Now, the OPEC said it will continue to cut production. Next, the China-US trade negotiations progress again this week, it is expected to continue to push up crude oil prices. But technically, pay attention to the $56 level range resistance and pay attention to adjusting the risk. Today, the US President’s Day holiday, the New York Stock Exchange closed, and crude oil futures trading was closed at 20:00, attention please!

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

25965/26050 resistance
25840/25760 support

The Sino-US trade negotiations have made progress, and the Fed officials have made comments, boosting the market sentiment and boosting the stock market. The market is waiting for the next round of negotiations this week, and it is estimated that the stock market may be adjusted before the consultation. Today, the US President’s Day holiday, the New York Stock Exchange is closed. On the US President’s Day holiday, the New York Stock Exchange closed, and the US Dow Jones Industrial Index futures US30 closed early at 20:00, attention please!


3480 / 3280 support
3750 / 3950 resistance

US Federal Reserve official said that if the US economy performs as expected, it is not necessary to raise interest rates during the year,the market expected the Fed is considering to stop interest rate hikes this year. Assume that If the cryptocurrency market demand increase and the dollar depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin, the first resistance at US3750.

Enjoy and happy trade! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk. Wish Happy trading!

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam, Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is: the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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