The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Personal opinions today:
The British Parliament plans to vote on the draft Brexit agreement tomorrow, but the draft is expected to be finally rejected. The British Prime Minister indicated that if the draft is rejected, it will be delayed until the March to vote again, and seek EU acceptance of the proposal to delay the Brexit process. At present, the EU government has indicated that it can accept the proposal, so the UK has the opportunity to suspend the risk of hard Brexit, and the British pound rebound. On the other hand, the political risk in the UK has risen. The Prime Minister may face impeachment in the British Parliament, and the British pound has a chance to fall.
In the afternoon, refer to the Chinese money supply and industrial production in the Eurozone, and pay attention to the Canadian National Economic Confidence Index at night. The market also waited for 5 pm, the German Ministry of Economic Affairs announced a new economic report, if the report shows a pessimistic outlook, the euro against the dollar may go lower, and indirectly affect the Swiss franc fall.
Last week, the European Central Bank said that the euro zone rate hike will be delayed until the end of the year, and consider continuing the second round of long-term financing plan (LTRO), affecting the euro’s decline. Today, Germany publishes an economic report that may affect the mood of the euro investment. Because this week the euro zone will announce important economic indicators, including inflation data. Economic report outlook and data performance may affect the ECB’s monetary policy and affect the performance of the euro.
The Brexit draft will be scheduled to be submitted to the parliament for discussion and voting tomorrow, but the news shows that if the draft is rejected, the British government will postpone the vote until the end of March. The market is currently keeping the final vote of the British Parliament tomorrow. It may believe that the pound has rebounded recently. If there is no good news to support further, the pound will face a risk of falling. Please pay attention to risks when trading related currencies!
Earlier, the Fed chairman explained the Fed’s monetary policy orientation, the dollar was supported, and the Swiss franc was indirectly negative. The US dollar against the Swiss franc broke through the most resistance level of 0.9790. It is expected that the current Swiss franc trend is similar to that of the Euro. If the Euro continues to fall, it will indirectly affect the Swiss franc. The US dollar has a chance to test the resistance range against the Swiss franc.
After the Fed chairman explained the Fed’s monetary policy, the dollar was supported and the dollar rose against the yen. In addition, the US Dow and the Japanese Nikkei index generally rose, indirectly supporting the dollar against the yen. However, the risks of Brexit, the suspension of some US governments, and the announcement of the results of US companies must be carefully watched for market volatility, which will cause the USD/JPY to fluctuate. Technically, it is temporarily expected that the USDJPY will maintain an important support at 107.65. If the Nikkei index rebounds sharply, it is expected to break the resistance of 108.50.
The Sino-US trade meeting has progressed well, raising the China renminbi and benefiting the Australian dollar. The next Sino-US trade meeting time will be at the end of this month. It may believe that the trade war will temporarily cease, and the Australian dollar is expected to remain above 0.7145. However, investment is risky. It is recommended to pay more attention to Sino-US trade negotiations when investing, and refer to the China RMB performance and copper price trend, which will help analyze the trend of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.
The New Zealand dollar followed the Australian dollar’s rose, maintaining above the 0.6700 support level and extending to the 0.68 level. The market looks forward to making further progress in the next Sino-US trade meeting and support the NZD to continue to rise against the US dollar. However, during this period, it is noted that the New Zealand dollar has the opportunity to adjust. In the trend, it is recommended to refer to the Australian dollar and the China RMB’s trend.
The Crude oil price adjustments, Canadian dollar fluctuations also follow the changes in crude oil prices. It is recommended that Canada does not have important economic data and monetary policy comments, and must pay attention to the development of crude oil prices. Technically, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar broke the 1.3255 resistance. According to last week’s proposal, it is expected that the US dollar against the Canadian dollar will have the opportunity to test the 1.33 level.
The British Parliament will vote on the draft of the Brexit tomorrow, but the government may postpone the draft of the Brexit vote after the draft is rejected. It is currently expected to vote on the draft of Brexit tomorrow, the risk of falling pounds will rise, and the euro will have a chance to rise against the pound, testing 0.8955 or 0.8980.
The euro may be affected by the fall of the UK and the euro will be widened against the Swiss franc. Last week, the euro was adjusted against the Swiss fran. Now the high of 1.1345, and 1.1260 support as very important.
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank said that there is no interest rate hike for the time being. Before the risk of Brexit is unclear, the safe-haven demand continues to support gold, but the above situation may change under the rising global investment sentiment. At present, we are paying attention to the announcement period of US corporate performance. If the company’s performance generally wins the market expectation, the stock market will rise, and the price of gold may fall, which is worthy of attention!
US crude oil futures
The Sino-US trade war is easing, and the market has successfully negotiated between China and the United States to increase demand for crude oil. However, the factors of reflected, the crude oil prices began to adjust under the expectation 53 US dollars, so that the current crude oil prices may be further lower. The crude oil futures prices may be adjusted to 50 US dollars, the first target may be 50.20 US dollars for reference.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
The Fed is likely to suspend interest rate hikes. The Fed chairman said that the Fed is not consider to raising interest rates, which is good for the investment climate. At the beginning of this week, we must pay attention to the announcement period of US corporate results. The announcement before, the stock market may be adjusted first.
3450 / 3360 support
3950 / 4050 resistance
The Fed is likely to suspend interest rate hikes. The Fed chairman said that the Fed is not consider to raising interest rates, which is good for the investment climate. However, which is negative for crypto market. Technically, the price maybe testing 3450 support. Now keep watching the US dow and the dollar performance, how to affected the demand of crypto currencies.
Enjoy and happy trade! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk. Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam, Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is: the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.