The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Before the weekend, OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers finally reached a constructive agreement and decided to increase crude oil production appropriately from July. As the international crude oil market increased by nearly 1 million barrels a day in the second half of the year, the increase in production was below the market target and did not change the tightening trend of crude oil supply. As a result, prices were supported. Before the close of trading on Friday, the US crude oil price rose to near 69 USD.
At 16:00 this afternoon, Germany announced the business climate index, and the market is expected to decline. At 22:00 in the evening, the United States announced new home sales, and the market is expected to grow. Note that the U.S. dollar has the opportunity to perform better because of the data, which is bullish USD.
The EU government will impose a 20% counter-tariff on U.S. imports, and the news stimulated the euro to rise. However, the U.S. side will fight back, I believe it needs to be observed and be careful about the risks. At 16:00 in the afternoon, Germany announced the business climate index, and the market is expected to decline. If the result is lower than expected, it will be negative for the euro.
Last week, the Bank of England broke the interest rate, and one of the central bank’s voting members changed their attitudes in favor of raising interest rates, stimulating expectations of an increase in interest rates in the UK Bank in August. Together with the euro’s rebound against the dollar, it supports the pound. However, it must be noted that the above factors lack actual reasons for support. There are also risks and worries ahead of the EU summit and the UK’s announcement of the Brexit White Paper this week. The exchange rate of the GBP/USD may be adjusted downwards, taking note of the risks.
The Swiss Central Bank’s monetary policy last week, and the euro strengthened, bullish Swiss francs. However, after the good news, today’s market expects the US economic data to perform better, bearish Swiss francs, and USD/CHF has the opportunity to adjust the rebound.
As the Nikkei index fell this morning, the dollar fell against the yen. Technically, USD/JPY fell from the 110.76 and 110.20 levels respectively, and the support level has also moved downwards. Currently note 109.20 and 108.95 support. If the stock market falls, there will be an opportunity to test lower support.
The technical rebound in copper prices, coupled with the decline in the US dollar, supported the rise in the Australian dollar. Before viewing the results of the U.S. economic data tonight, the Australian dollar has the opportunity to adjust the next test support level. At 7:30 am tomorrow, Australia announces its consumer confidence index. Whether the result can be improved, and the Australian dollar will be better.
Attention to the New Zealand dollar following the development of the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar showed an upward trend. If the U.S. economic data show a better than expected performance tonight, the New Zealand dollar may adjust its support for the next support. And the market is concerned about the Bank of New Zealand’s central bank’s interest rate and monetary policy orientation on Thursday.
The oil price rebounded and supported the Canadian dollar. Unfortunately, last week’s important Canadian economic data was weak, and the Canadian dollar’s rise was limited. If the US economic data show better performance this evening, the Canadian dollar can still find resistance. Of course, the Canadian dollar may still refer to the development of oil prices.
This week’s EU summit and the United Kingdom announced the Brexit report on the eve of the sterling risks and worries exist, the euro has a chance to rise against the pound. If break the resistance, you will explore the resistance above 0.8825.
The SNB policy remains unchanged, but its content tends to make the euro negative. The EUR/CHF trend is trending downwards. 1.1480 is an important short-term support.
Last week, the US economic data was weak and gold rose. Short-term economic risks continue to support gold. If the U.S. economic data show a better performance in the short-term tonight, gold has the opportunity to reverse the decline from resistance.
US crude oil futures:
The OPEC oil group meeting has passed. The oil price lacks other news and has the opportunity to adjust.
6232 / 6434 resistance ,
6032/ 5820 support.
Crypto currencies security alarms the block chain confidence. Couple of Japan block chain had hacked by someone, the bitcoin fell a lot on last Weekend. Now if 6032 supports remains, rebounding maybe 6232 and 6434. If fail to rebound and fall, it maybe reach 5820 which is fist support.
The above is for reference only; the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Trading must included risk management! Wish Happy trading!
ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor
Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator
Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director.
Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
If you have any inquiries, you can reach us at [email protected] at WeChat ID: ATFX_China