The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell further established the Fed’s monetary policy in a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Bank Central Bank’s annual meeting on last Friday. However, Powell revealed that the Fed’s monetary policy rate hike conditions must increase inflation rate by more than 2%. He reiterated that the current level of US economic inflation has not exceeded this range, suggesting that the Fed may not raise interest rates next month, that is, the market dollar fell, driving the major currency against the US dollar. Even the price of gold broke through $1,200 resistance.
Today’s attention to the data is mainly at 16:00 pm, Germany’s lFO business climate index in August. The market expects German data to rise from last month, it helps the euro rise. And the pound and the Swiss franc may benefit, a lot of European currencies. It must be borne in mind that this week’s important economic data is the US second quarter real GDP correction on Wednesday. If it meets the 4% growth, it will benefit the US dollar. Therefore, it is possible to face the adjustment risk by chasing the major currencies against the US dollar and gold.
Last Friday, Germany’s second-quarter GDP was flat compared with the previous month and also supported the euro. In addition, US durable goods orders in July were dropped larger than market expectations. The comments of the Fed’s chairman further dragged down the dollar and boosted the euro. But today, as the news is digested by the Asian and European markets, there may be adjustment EURUSD after the Germany’s data.
Last Friday, Germany’s second-quarter GDP was flat compared with the previous month, and it also supported the euro, while supporting the pound. In addition, US durable goods orders in July were dropped larger than market expectations. The comments of the Fed’s chairman further dragged down the dollar and boosted the pound. But today, it may be digested by the Asian and European markets with the above news. At the beginning of the night, there may be adjustment opportunities for pound.
The basic principle remains the same, and the Swiss franc continues to be dominated by the euro. If the euro falls, it will indirectly curb the Swiss franc’s gains. Currently the USDCHF maintaining the target of 0.9875 and 0.9890 resistance.
The dollar rose against the yen following the Nikkei. Once challenged 111.45 resistance, technically it was a high number in recent months. However, note that the key resistance of 111.45 or 111.65 is not broken, and the dollar may adjust to fall against the yen.
US durable goods orders in July were much worse than market expectations. The comments of the Fed’s chairman further dragged down the dollar and boosted Australia and the United States. But today, with the above news being digested by the Asian and European markets, AUDUSD may have opportunities for adjustment at night.
New Zealand’s trade account deficit widened last week, but exports have increased sharply, offsetting negative factors. Finally, with the analysis, under the US economic data slip, the negative dollar, boosting the New Zealand dollar. Today, as the news is being digested by the Asian and European markets, US trading hours may have opportunities to adjust.
US economic data is weak, Fed policy may have a negative dollar and oil prices, to boost the Canadian dollar, USDCAD test 1.3035 support and broke. However, oil prices may end their gains and the Canadian dollar may be adjusted. USDCAD has the opportunity to rebound to 1.3055 or 1.3075 last resistance.
The euro is stronger than the pound and the euro is rising against the pound. At present, the resistance target has reached 0.9020, and it is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of reversal.
Technically, the initial resistance of 1.1405 has archived. However, it must be noted that the resistance above 1.14 is heavy, and the euro has a downside risk against the Swiss franc, which deserves attention.
The weak US economy data and the comments of the Fed’s chairman dragged the dollar and boosted gold. The market is waiting to see the results of US GDP data on Wednesday, and gold may adjust in the short term. At present, the important support is 1198. If the support is not broken in US1201 and US1198 respectively, the trend is still upward.
US crude oil futures:
Last week, crude oil inventories fell, and the Fed chairman’s remarks stimulated the rebound in oil prices. After reaching the target resistance of $69, the oil price has adjusted. Adjustment targets may be under $67. Only short-term target support is supported at 67.95 and 67.60.
6780 / 6875resistance
6320 / 6170 support
The US durable order data is bad, the bitcoin rebound Moreover, the Fed chairman’s remarks stimulated the rebound in crypto currencies. Now may test higher resistance.
The above is for reference only; the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Trading must included risk management! Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam, Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. wechat: ATFX_China
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