The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Last week, the US government said that it would reopen trade talks and invite Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wang Shouwen and his delegation to visit the United States. The two countries plan to hold trade ministerial-level trade consultations this month. The offshore renminbi has fallen back from the near 6.96 mark. China’s stock market and China’s A50 index rebounded.
Internationally, the Turkish crisis has witnessed new developments. The Qatar government has injected 15 billion U.S. dollars into Turkey and strengthened cooperation between the two countries. After the Turkish government injected funds into the banking system, the financial market stabilized and weakened the dollar. The dollar fell to the 96 side, and the euro and gold rebounded. It also represents the cooling of the financial market risk sentiment, and the focus shifts to economic development and performance comparison between countries.
This week’s important economic data is mainly concentrated in Europe and other countries. The most important data in the United States is mainly the US existing home sales in July, durable goods orders and the number of initial jobless claims last week. Today’s attention to the data is the German July PPI, the Eurozone construction output in June and the Canadian National Economic Confidence Index. Under the adjustment of the US dollar, bullish European currency and gold price. But we must pay attention to the risks of the market and international relations, in case the dollar rebounds again.
The data to be noted today are the German PPI in July and the construction output in the Eurozone in June. As long as the data is not unsatisfactory, maintain a bullish euro and look forward to 1.1480 resistance. But we must pay attention to the risks of the market and international relations, in case the dollar rebounds again to curb the euro’s gains.
The UK’s recent data growth is ideal and inflation expectations are heating up. But don’t forget, since the UK raised interest rates in early August. The central bank must observe the performance of economic data in at least one season before it has the opportunity to raise interest rates again. Therefore, the trend of the pound is still affected by the development of the Brexit. But if the dollar falls and the euro rises, it will hopefully boost the pound.
The Swiss franc is dominated by the euro. If the euro starts to settle in the future, the euro rebounds and is expected to drive the Swiss franc to follow. The Swiss franc in the market is still not optimistic, but still pay attention to the downside risk of the Swiss franc.
If the US and Nikkei indexes fall, the dollar will be further pushed down against the yen. Instead, the dollar rose against the yen. The current trend of the US Dow and the Nikkei will help to grasp the direction of the dollar against the yen.
Earlier, Australia’s unemployment rate and employment in July improved, and the Australian dollar was bullish. In addition, the Turkish crisis eased and the euro rose, indirectly boosting the Australian dollar.
Recent economic data from Australia and New Zealand have been well established, with the bullish New Zealand dollar. In addition, the euro rebounded, indirectly boosting the New Zealand dollar. New Zealand announced important data this week and the market is watching.
North American trade agreement, Canada has not returned to negotiations, the Canadian dollar still has downside risks. But if oil prices rebound strongly, the bullish dollar.
UK employment report, CPI and retail sales data growth, if the pound rebounds, it will be negative for the euro against the pound. But technically, the euro broke the 0.8965 against the pound, the trend may change, and the trend may be upward.
With the improvement of the Turkish currency crisis, the euro rebounded against the Swiss franc and rebounded. Technically, the chances of an important support level of 1.1260 are greatly reduced. If the euro rebounds further, the euro can continue to rise against the Swiss franc.
The Turkish currency crisis improved, emerging market currencies and global stock markets rebounded, funds flowed out of dollar assets, the dollar fell, and gold rebounded. However, the fundamentals show that US inflation is rising. The market believes that the Fed’s interest rate hike will increase next month. Gold is still not attractive and gold is under pressure. Gold 1188 and 1192 are important resistances respectively. If there is no breakthrough, gold is bearish.
US crude oil futures:
The Turkish crisis has eased, but there are many uncertainties in the United States’ sanctions against different countries, affecting the economy and production, dragging down oil demand, and whether oil prices can continue to rise. Attention is currently focused on maintaining important support within $63 and significant resistance above $66.
6625/ 6867 resistance
6270 / 6070 support
The market keeps expected bathe US fed hike in coming next month. It seems negative for the demand and interest in crypto currencies. If the recommend 6867 resistance could not breakthrough, the trend will keep downward.
The above is for reference only; the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Trading must included risk management! Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam, Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. wechat: ATFX_China
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