The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
US CPL performance rose moderately in July, although the core CPl remained unchanged in July, but it means that the US economic growth in the second quarter will continue, which will help boost the economic growth forecast for the third quarter, and have the opportunity to strengthen the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike in September. expected. In addition, the dollar has risen sharply, and the Asian market opened further this morning. The Turkish currency has depreciated sharply and has set a new record low. The US president announced that it would double the tariff imposed on Turkey’s bismuth aluminum. The Turkish economy was severely frustrated, spreading to emerging markets, the currency was unstable and following the devaluation, and the funds turned to the dollar. However, the transfer of funds to the US dollar does not mean that it is beneficial to the US or global stock markets. After all, the problem is along the trade war and cannot be interpreted as political risk. The trade war has damaged global economic and trade, triggering a stock market crisis. Under this reasoning, the global stock market did not perform well, and more funds returned to the yen, causing the yen to rise.
There are no important data released today, and the market focuses on a series of important data from China, the UK and the Eurozone. Currently, these figures are expected to be better than last month, and the US dollar has the opportunity to adjust. Please pay attention!
Turkey is subject to tariffs imposed by the United States on its trade, combating important economic industries in Turkey, the depreciation of the Turkish currency, and the euro is dragged down. The important support level of the euro against the US dollar is 1.1315. If it stays above the support level, it is expected to boost the euro by forecasting the economic data of the euro zone tomorrow.
Also affected by the devaluation of the Turkish currency and emerging market currencies, the UK was dragged down. Currently hope to borrow the British data for the next two days to support the pound. However, it must be noted that the emerging market currency depreciation crisis has not been removed, and European currencies remain bearish.
The path of the Swiss franc is often dominated by the euro. If the euro starts to settle in the future, the euro rebounds and is expected to drive the Swiss franc to follow.
Japan’s second-quarter GDP saw a negative gain in the past two quarters, and the bearish dollar was against the yen. The US and Nikkei indices fell, further pushing down the dollar against the yen. Paying attention to the trend of the US Dow and the Nikkei will help to grasp the direction of the dollar against the yen.
The Turkish currency and other emerging market currencies have depreciated, and the US dollar is strong, which is negative for the Australian dollar. Tomorrow Australia will announce the Consumer Confidence Index and the Payroll Index. If the data grows, it will increase the Australian dollar. In addition, European data performance is also very important. The euro rebounded and indirectly boosted the Australian dollar.
The dollar is strong and the Australian dollar is weak, and the dollar is negative. The New Zealand food price index increased in July, or bullish New Zealand dollars. If the dollar is adjusted, it will further upward to the NZD.
The oil price rebounded, generally in the Canadian dollar. However, the dollar is strong and the Canadian dollar is falling. Looking back at the Canadian employment report, all kinds of sub-data are more than a few Canadian dollars. If the dollar is adjusted, it is more favorable to the Canadian dollar.
The euro fell back to 0.9025 after hitting only 0.9025. Note that before and after the UK data was released, the euro fluctuated against the pound. Tomorrow’s UK employment report and the CPI of the day after tomorrow may continue to be negative for the euro against the pound.
The depreciation of the Turkish currency dragged down the euro and the euro fell more against the Swiss franc. Technically, the 2017 support level of 1.1260 is available as a support reference. But it must wait for the Turkish currency to stabilize, the euro rebound, and the euro can rebound against the Swiss franc.
The depreciation of the Turkish currency dragged down emerging market currencies, and global stock markets fell, but did not support gold. Due to the large amount of capital flowing into the US dollar and the increase in US inflation, the market believes that the Fed’s interest rate hike will increase, gold is not attractive, and gold is under pressure. If the gold breaks 1204, further test 1195 or below. However, in the next two days, the European data may support the euro to drag down the US dollar. Therefore, when gold is close to 1204, it is necessary to pay attention to the market conditions and European data performance.
US crude oil futures:
Turkey was imposed by the United States on tariffs, dragging down the economic and currency crisis. A wider trade war will only drag down the development of oil prices, and whether oil prices will continue to rise, there are many uncertainties.
6350 / 6500 resistance
6067 / 5967 support
The US CPl in July is better then market expected, unfortunately bearish the bitcoin. Dollar strong and Turkey depreciation crisis, it make bitcoin keep at recent lower. Now the market looking the support at US6067, if rebounded the bitcoin will reach US6350 or 6500.
The above is for reference only; the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Trading must included risk management! Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam, Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. wechat: ATFX_China
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