Year-on-year growth remains steady, rising FX volatility might be here to stay
FX contracts volumes on the Moscow exchange have subsided somewhat from December’s impressive showing. Despite being on the lower side when compared to the end of last year, the number overall is pretty strong considering that Russia was celebrating NYE and Christmas during the first week of January. We are marking RUB 13,2 billion for the month, which is lower by 28% on last month’s record high.
If we compare this number to last year’s January we are seeing a substantial increase in trading activity – the number is up 57%. The bulk of volumes comes from swap trading, which accounts for RUB 7,6 billion or 58% of the market. Spot trading totaled RUB 5,58 billion, which comprised 42% of forex trading volumes in Russia.
The trend higher is still intact with volatility in emerging markets playing a key role here. According to the derivatives markets metrics, FX hedging bets have spiked higher during the month of January. Ongoing volatility is unlikely to affect trading volumes negatively in any substantial way, so we are awaiting February’s number with curiosity, as it will be a full trading month for the Russian markets.