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Screenshot of a breaking news alert e-mail from Q2 2017
First peek at what looks like a good month for FX volumes.
CME Group, which runs the world’s largest derivatives marketplace, announced that FX contract volumes (mainly Eurodollar futures contracts) in its system were up by 42% in September from August to an average of 1.035 million contracts daily. That growth though is somewhat misleading, as August was CME’s slowest month for FX since 2009. This September’s number is actually 4% below last September. The increase simply returns CME to near-normal FX volume levels.
While CME’s reported volumes are futures contracts, they typically are a good predictor of retail / spot volumes as well. Those markets are interconnected, and are typically driven by the same catalyst — namely volatility.
And on that note, we believe that CME’s healthy September figures are indeed a good sign that overall FX industry figures were good for the month of September — as we had predicted when we published last month’s Retail FX Volume Index, sponsored by Leverate, as volatility picked up throughout September.
We should learn more when Forex ECNs such as ICAP, Hotspot FX, and Thomson Reuters release September numbers in the coming days and weeks. Stay tuned…
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