This article was submitted by Antreas Themistokleous, market analyst at Exness.
This preview of weekly data looks at USOIL and XAUUSD where both are making bullish corrections since the US Dollar Index is trading slightly lower in recent sessions.
The most important economic data for this week are:
- Australian and Chinese balance of trade tomorrow at 00:30 AM and 03:00 AM GMT respectively. Market consensus is for an increase of the trade surplus of A$0.25 Billion and $3.8 Billions respectively likely supporting the relevant currencies.
- Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision tomorrow at 03:30 AM GMT. The scenario of a single hike (0.25 bps) is the most possible while in the event of a double hike we might witness stronger support on the Aussie Dollar.
- FED chair Powell testimony tomorrow at 15:00 GMT. Investors and traders will be closely watching the comments from the FED chair in regards to inflation and interest rates.
- Canadian and American balance of trade on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. Market expectations are for an increase of the trade deficit of around $2 Billion on the US figure while no significant change is expected on the Canadian figure.
- US job openings for January on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT. The consensus is for 10.6 Million while the previous release was 11.012 Million. This is a small percentage change and probably won’t affect the Dollar so much since the figure is for January and this might be already priced in.
- British monthly GDP on Friday at 07:00 AM GMT where the consensus is for a shift in the positive figure of 0.1% against the previous release of -0.5%. If this is confirmed then we might see some gains for the British quid at least in the short term.
- Canadian unemployment rate on Friday at 13:30 GMT. A slight increase of 0.1% is expected which might create some minor losses for the loonie.
- !!MOST IMPORTANT EVENT OF THE WEEK!! – US Job report on Friday at 13:30 GMT. The markets are expecting an addition of 200K jobs while the low unemployment figure in the states is not expected to change. This could create gains for the Dollar since the fears of recession could be eased after seeing one of the major figures coming from the US still looking strong.
Crude oil opened lower on Monday mainly due to China setting a lower-than-expected target for economic growth this year at around 5% “Premier Li Keqiang said on Sunday the foundation for stable growth in China needed to be consolidated, insufficient demand remained a pronounced problem, and the expectations of private investors and businesses were unstable.” Investors cautiously wait for the major publications coming from the States, especially the NFP later the same week. Hawkishness from the FED is not picking up just yet since the possibility of a single hike on the next meeting is currently just above 70% making the Dollar index to slightly decline boosting Crude oil’s price up overall in the last week.