Trump’s first 100 days and the FX market

Multicurrency cash settlement system operator CLS has a unique overarching view of the Forex market, and has put out an interesting review of US President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office (a milestone which passed quietly this weekend) and the effect the new administration has had on the currency markets.

The report covers the days on which President Trump’s policy and statements had a significant impact on CLS FX traded volumes and includes graphs and commentary.

Events which had a particular influence on the market included:

  • Day 12 (31 January): Trump Administration accuses again foreign governments of unfair currency manipulation.
  • Day 21 (09 February 2017): President Trump promises to announce the most ambitious tax reform plan since Reagan.
  • Day 33 (21 March 2017): Trump trade fades amid healthcare debate.
  • Day 78 (07 April): President Trump orders strike on Syria.
  • Day 83 (12 April): President Trump talks dollar down.

CLS’s main method is to examine large hourly volume deviations from the corresponding 2016 average hourly volumes, likely resulting from events related to President Trump and his administration.

In summary, CLS found that the impact of Trump statements on the FX market was indeed significant.

CLS’s full report on the first 100 days of Trump and the FX markets can be downloaded here (pdf).

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