Mati Greenspan, Senior Market Analyst at FX broker eToro, has provided his daily commentary on traditional and crypto markets for December 21, 2018.
- BCH Leads Crypto Bull Run: Crypto’s recent bull run has been headlined by Bitcoin Cash, which has risen nearly 200% since Monday. The cause of this meteoric rise is possibly due to a combination of factors, including manipulation and selling pressure fading.
- Markets Hit Lows on Looming Government Shutdown: Most global market indices are at their lowest levels in more than a year as the US government faces a potential shutdown this evening. The shutdown would be caused by Trump and Democrats at a standoff over whether to include funding for a border wall in the federal budget.
- Congress Looks to Settle ICO Security Offering Debate: A new bill called the Token Taxonomy Act would change the SEC’s 72-year-old securities law to exclude cryptocurrencies — a sign that congress is paying attention to this pressing issue in the crypto community.
- Facebook Crypto Rumors Emerge: Rumors of Facebook developing a cryptocurrency were reinforced by recent reports of the company developing a payments product in India — a highly difficult market to enter.
As if the stock markets didn’t have enough to worry about at the moment, it does seem like, short of a miracle, the US government will be shutting down this evening until further notice.
As we mentioned before, this type of thing is known to happen in the two-party system of Washington DC. However, this time might be different. President Trump absolutely refuses to sign any bill that doesn’t include $5 billion for a border wall, and Congress just doesn’t seem to be willing to draft any such budget.
So, we are at an impasse.
Most stocks are now at their indices are at their lowest levels in more than a year. Here are a few long-term charts to get a grip with the size of this dip.
What’s up BCH?!
One of the most astonishing aspects of the recent crypto bull run is the scope of the retracement in Bitcoin Cash. This spinoff of Bitcoin has somehow managed to rise 198% from its lows on Monday to the highs today.
My original assessment, as was famously quoted, was that the entire rally until now has been a factor of short covering. Though I still stand by this assessment, it would stand to reason that something else must be going on behind the scenes for Bitcoin Cash.
Theories range from ‘outright manipulation’ to ‘pump and dump’ but one of my favorite theories revolved around liquidity.
Still, I’m not completely satisfied with any of the above explanations as a stand-alone. Perhaps there’s some combination of the above factors or even others that we’re not aware of at this time.
What would be the most strange to me would be an actual shift in sentiment with BCH going from one of the most unpopular coins to being the favorite in such a short time. After all, many people still place a large amount of blame on the Bitcoin Cash hard fork, for the recent declines in the market.
Given the recent statements from the SEC in the United States, it seems that anyone looking to start a new ICO will have better luck elsewhere.
Chairman Jay Clayton was very clear in saying that every ICO he’s ever seen should be classified as a security. Meaning, that ICOs need to register with the SEC before approaching the public for funding.
A new bill known as the Token Taxonomy Act has now been proposed that could scrap this mindset altogether.
For those of us who don’t exactly speak legalese, here’s a great summation from CNBC’s Kate Rooney…
Of course, this is just a bill and it still needs to go through a lot of red tape before being signed into law. However, it is comforting to know that Congress is getting on top of this hot-button issue.
Would like to wish all of you an incredibly Merry Christmas. Hope you enjoy the time with your loved ones.
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