ASIC and FCA licensed Retail FX broker AETOS Capital Group have provided their daily commentary on traditional markets for April 16, 2019.
The Euro closed where it opened on Monday, closing at 1.1302 against the greenback. Initially, the pair rose up to 1.1320 at the beginning of the day, as risk-on mood from late last week prevailed, while the lack of macroeconomic data kept market movements limited. Limiting EUR’s gains, the German’s Bundesbank monthly report showed that the country’s economy grew moderately in the first quarter of the year, adding that the primary growth trend remains subdued, hardly a news, but still weighing on the shared currency. The US published the preliminary NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for April, which resulted at 10.1 vs. the expected 6.0, also well above the previous one. Tuesday will bring the German ZEW survey for April(19:00 AEST), with the economic sentiment expected to have improved in the country and the Union. The EU will release February Construction Output, while the US will unveil March Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production, seen little changed when compared to the previous month. Range trading may continue ahead of Thursday when both economies will publish more relevant figures.
EURUSD 4 Hour Chart
Based on the chart above, the pair heads into the Asian session still trapped between Fibonacci levels, yet at the upper end of these last days’ range, suggesting bulls are still outpacing bears.
In the 4 hours chart, the pair is trading above moving averages, and with the 20 SMA (Dark Blue Line) extending its advance above the 100 SMA(Red Line) and also surpassing the 200 SMA (Turquoise Line), usually a sign of directional gains ahead. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart eased within positive levels, rather reflecting the lack of follow-through than
suggesting an upcoming decline. The risk of a short-term bearish corrective movement will increase on a break below 1.1285, while bulls will be more willing to give up if the decline extends below 1.1245, the next Fibonacci support.
The Cable pair made gains on Monday, closing at 1.3099(+17 pips) against the greenback. The UK release the Rightmove House Price Index at the beginning of the day, which increased by 1.1% MoM and declined by 0.1% YoY, better than the previous month figures. The UK will release this Tuesday its latest employment data, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% for the three months to February. Earnings during the same period are seen up to 3.5% including bonuses, and unchanged at 3.4% excluding bonuses. The Claimant Count Change is seen at 20K in March. Overall, the UK’s labor sector has done well for almost a year now, and no surprises are expected there. If something, wages’ growth is expected to continue above inflation. In the Brexit front, nothing has changed, without progress in May-Corbyn talks. The issue has been set temporarily aside after the EU granted the kingdom a flexible extension up to October 31.
GBPUSD 4 Hour Chart
The pair continues ranging within familiar levels, with sellers rejecting the advance on an approach to the daily descendant trend line coming from this year high, currently at around 1.3120. In the 4 hours chart, the GBP/USD pair offers a neutral-to-positive stance, seesawing around a directionless 200 EMA(Red Line) but steady above a bullish 20 SMA (Blue Line), as technical indicators hold above their midlines, failing to provide clear directional clues.
The information above is of general nature only and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or investment needs. The products and services provided are issued by AETOS Capital Group Pty. Ltd. (AFSL: 313016, ACN: 125113117). Trading Forex margin and CFDs carries a high level of risk, and losses can exceed your deposits. You are strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice before you make an investment decision. Please refer to our Product Disclosure Statement which you can obtain from our website for more details. AETOS has the ownership of the contents of this FX commentary. Copying, reprinting or publishing to a third party is not permitted.