Mati Greenspan, Senior Market Analyst at FX broker eToro, has provided his daily commentary on traditional and crypto markets for November 11, 2019. The text below is an excerpt and does not contain the full analysis.
Hi Everyone,
The eleventh day of the eleventh month has indeed evolved into the biggest commercial consumer extravaganza in the world by far and this year’s festivities have already broken several online shopping records.
The Alibaba countdown concert featured American pop star Taylor Swift who got the party started off right, online sales had already topped $13 billion in the first hour and according to this live counter by now $BABA has already smashed last year’s record of $30 billion.
To put the number into context, in 2018 Amazon’s online sales for the entire year were approximately $232 billion.
What amazes me most about this holiday is the way that it’s evolved into a full-on live entertainment celebration where celebrities across dozens of streams are currently showcasing products for people to buy. This is not the China I’m used to seeing.
Today’s Highlights
- Where’d the Recession Go?
- Stocks Falling
- Bakkt Gaining Adoption
Please note: All trading, figures & graphs are valid as of November 11th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.
Traditional Markets
Eleven eleven is not the only thing being celebrated in the financial markets today as it seems the odds of a recession hitting have come way down in the last few weeks.
One month ago in an update titled Bad Crypto, we showed how the US yield curve was quite warped. Instead of bond yields rising over time, it was clear that investors were pricing in troubled times for at least 5 years out. But now, somehow, the yield curve has completely fixed itself.
Here, just check out this beautiful rising line where bond yields grow the further out they go. Exactly as they should.
In this article from September, many well-respected economists were posting their expectations of a recession before the US elections at 50% and higher. Today, I’ll bet you that most of them are ready to eat their words.
The main headwinds that were cited at the time were the US-China trade war and Brexit, or in short, anti-globalization sentiment. Though I’m not sure what’s really changed from then until today.
Stocks Declining
Despite the two featured stories above, it seems that stocks are coming down somewhat today. The losses seem to be originating from Hong Kong, which is down 2.7% today after another protester was shot and one man was set on fire, as tensions continue to escalate.
It’s quite odd to see the China 50 index dropping on a day like today but here it is…
It’s worth noting that the British Pound is bucking the trend. After beating back a recession this morning and showing a bit of GDP growth.
Exchange volume has returned to normal levels, as have transactions on the bitcoin blockchain and I’m happy to report that volumes on Bakkt’s futures contracts continue to rise. Yesterday, a new all-time high volume of $15.5 million was reached and today seems capable of even breaking that. As of this writing, 813 BTC has been traded for approximately $7 million and the day is just getting started.
Mati Greenspan can be found on LinkedIn, Twitter, or etoro.Â
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