Mati Greenspan, Senior Market Analyst at FX broker eToro, has provided his daily commentary on traditional and crypto markets for September 5, 2019. The text below is an excerpt and does not contain the full analysis.
- Top of Bitcoin Range Declines: Bitcoin bulls find themselves in all too familiar chart setup – the descending triangle. If it breaks below its lower range, BTC could test its 200 day moving average.
- Gold Extends Its H2 Gains: Gold is now testing $1,550 to the upside. Meanwhile, markets have been slow to react to central bankers over the past month.
- Euro Value Declines: The Euro has taken a step below $1.10 for the first time since 2016, as the dollar experienced strong gains in August. This month, however, the USD seems to be backpedalling a bit.
Very glad to report that not a lot changed while I was away. The hot summer month of August must have taken its toll on the psyche of international investors. Sure, we saw some additional tariffs on China from President Trump, which we can only hope will be resolved when the two countries meet in about a month from now.
Also in today’s news, we see that the CEO of Hong Kong has finally decided to give in to protester demands and completely withdraw the controversial China extradition bill that set the country into a whirl 13 weeks ago. Though many have vowed to continue fighting for democracy in the country, this Lam move will no doubt steal a lot of the opposition’s momentum.
Also, something about Brexit and Johnson. Still need to catch on on this but it doesn’t seem like today’s drama has had much effect on Brexit’s timetable or the price of the Pound.
All in all though, the stock markets have consolidated for most of the last month. Here we can see the Dow Jones’ mild selloff at the beginning of August and it’s arduous recovery.
Mild Push on FX and Commodities
Looking at the currency and commodity markets, we can see that trends have tepidly continued. The most prominent mover award should probably go to gold (top left), which has extended its H2 gains ever further and is now testing $1,550 to the upside. Oil, on the other hand, has barely budged and so the chart wasn’t even worth posting.
August was a great month for King Dollar as well, though September does seem to be defying the crown somewhat. Check out the Euro (top middle), which has taken a step below $1.10 for the first time since 2016.
Either central bankers have been exceptionally quiet during my vacation or the markets have been slow to respond to them. Either way, I’m happy.
Remarks from one former central banker did reach my ear though. The other Greenspan never disappoints either. In this short video, uncle Alan talks about the upcoming recession and how the Fed might react.
For bitcoin as well, the price hasn’t really moved very much. The range from $9,500 to $12,000ish that we’ve been watching since July seems to be holding up. What might be slightly worrisome for bitcoin bulls though is that the top of the range seems to be declining now and now we find ourselves in an all too familiar chart setup… the descending triangle.
If this yellow range does break to the downside though, please look at the positioning of the blue line. Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average has long been a key indicator. As we mentioned in an update (titled: Pascal’s Golden Tantrum) on August 2nd, we may need to test that indicator once again before moving forward.
Even though the price remains stagnant, the community continues to grow. While I was on vacation, I had the privilege to attend a unique bitcoin conference called Bitcoin Is in Los Angeles, which was put on by professional NFL player Russell Okung. Listening to Russell speak about what bitcoin is as an immigrant to the USA who himself went through his own tests of wealth accumulation was truly inspiring.
Will also be attending the Upcoming Litecoin summit in Las Vegas and the AI & Blockchain Summit in Malta. But first… it’s blockchain week here in Tel Aviv!!
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