ActivTrades’ Market Analysts have prepared for LeapRate their daily commentary on traditional markets for October 14, 2019. See details below:
FOREX/BREXIT
After reaching three-month highs on Friday, the pound lost some steam and is down 0.7% against the dollar in early Monday trading. The gains at the end of last week were driven by reports that a deal between the UK and the EU was imminent. But it appears that last week’s optimism has been replaced by scepticism about the chances of an agreement that can lead to an orderly Brexit. Time is running out and no concrete news has yet emerged from the ongoing negotiations, only rumours.
Ricardo Evangelista – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades
GOLD
Friday’s stock market rally was negative for the gold price but bullion was able to stop its fall at $1,470, recovering in the last few trading hours. The situation appears mixed with a short-term trend that appears weak, while the prevailing outlook of the last few months was strongly bullish. From a technical point of view, prices are still in a lateral mode, with a first resistance placed at $1,500, followed by another key level at $1,515. Vice versa, a fall below $1,470 would denote further weakness. Investors are clearly waiting a fresh catalyst which could come from the trade war or from central banks or to a lesser extent from Brexit.
Carlo Alberto De Casa – Chief analyst, ActivTrades
EUROPEAN SHARES
European markets opened lower on Monday, despite a bullish trading session in Asia where shares extended Friday’s gains following President Trump’s announcement of a potential trade deal to be signed as early as next month. Large agricultural purchases and a new set of measures (regarding intellectual property) from China combined with no further US tariff hike this week could have boosted market sentiment today. However, investors remain cautious as the current “accord” is more seen as “good progress” than a proper deal, mostly due to a lack of substance. In addition, traders’ sentiment is also being impacted after imports/exports in China dropped more than forecast in September, showing an economy still suffering the consequences of the trade war.
In Europe, the most volatile moves came from UK assets after the latest Brexit proposal from UK PM Boris Johnson fails to satisfy the EU. The European bloc said the UK’s Brexit plans were still not good enough even though Boris Johnson warned further compromises would prevent the proposal from being approved by the Parliament in London. This is strongly impacting both the Sterling and the FTSE-100 index today as investors get more and more pessimistic about a positive outcome ahead of the 31st of October deadline.
The FTSE-100 index fell below the psychological 7,200pts level this morning but found support above 7,180pts. Finally, investors are likely to encounter a trading session lacking a clear direction today as volumes are expected to be thinner than usual due to Columbus Day in the US while Tokyo remains shut for holidays.
Pierre Veyret– Technical analyst, ActivTrades