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One of the most renowned professors of economics, Robert Shiller, has recently called bitcoin “a fad” in an interview for CNBC.
The author of “Irrational Exuberance” shared his opinion that people should be wary of bitcoin’s popularity. He said:
“It seems there is some strange enthusiasm for it”, referring to the massive growth and excitement of the cryptocurrency in the last year. Bitcoin grew with almost 800%, hitting an all-time high of almost $5,900. Coming from the fact that Professor Shiller won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013, and his prediction of the real estate market in 2008, it seems there might be some sense behind his warning words about the future of bitcoin. He shared that gold is also a “fad”, one that has lasted for centuries.
According to NewsMax:
“Confidence in the valuation of the market is indeed the lowest it’s been since 2000. And when it got low in 2000, the market fell about 40 percent. So it was bad. I think there’s a danger, but I’m not saying to sell everything. I’m still in the market myself.”
In early September, Shiller gave another interview on CNBC on his new book about market psychology and his thoughts on bitcoin. He shared that the overall market is “as highly priced as in 1929”, the year which signified one of the most dangerous market downfalls in the US history. According to Shiller, the market behaved in a different way in 1929 than now. The only exception now is seen in bitcoin. People are going “crazy” over bitcoin. What is more, US is the number one country in the highest CAPE ratio ranking. The CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio) was developed by Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the market by dividing the price by the index’s average historical 10-year earnings, while at the same time adjusting for inflation.
Shiller said that “bitcoin is currently the best example of a bubble out of enthusiasm”. Comparing bitcoin to a “fiction” and a “narrative”, Shiller pointed out to the attractive story behind bitcoin. It is true that to this day, nobody knows who invented it and if it was only one person or a nation.
Whether it is a bubble or a solid investment strategy, the technology behind bitcoin, blockchain, cannot be shaken down, since its applications are now seen in multiple sectors like healthcare, real estate, and even the ability to buy a citizenship with bitcoin.