Forex focus remains on the UK as industrial production numbers due

FXPRIMUS indicators and events for July 7 include UK industrial production, ECB meeting minutes, Japan trade figures. Here’s a list of all the upcoming economic indicators and events for today:

We can’t get away from focusing on the UK as today we get the UK industrial & manufacturing production figures for May. The figures are expected to be weak, following April’s remarkable rise. Does anyone need a new reason to sell sterling? GBP-negative.

With the ECB on hold for the time being, the minutes of the latest ECB meeting are not likely to be a major market-mover. Moreover, as was the case with the FOMC, events have largely overtaken them. The Brexit vote and the Italian banking crisis have put the ECB in a new position from where it was when the meeting took place. EUR-neutral.

The US ADP employment report is forecast to show a relatively robust rise in jobs of 150k. Last month however the ADP report showed a healthy 173k increase but the nonfarm payrolls rose only a miserable 38k. Given that huge discrepancy, market participants may be hesitant to trade on the ADP report even if it does show strong growth in payrolls. Nonetheless, a figure around what’s expected would suggest that the May NFP was an anomaly and could be revised up, so it would tend to be USD-bullish.

The weekly crude oil inventory figures are expected to show a smaller decline than last week. The market seems to be in a mood to sell oil; such a small drop would probably just corroborate that view. Oil-negative.

Overnight, Japan’s current account balance is expected to fall on both a seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted basis. That should in theory be JPY-negative, but I suspect that risk aversion rather than Japan’s fundamentals is driving the currency now. The market may choose to ignore the data this time.


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