Daily market commentary: The US dollar remains on the front foot


The US dollar remains on the front foot during early Friday trading, with the publication of the US Non-Farm Payrolls employment data just a few hours away. Having ended every trading session so far this week in the green, the greenback hit a fresh multi-month high this morning as the markets price in a positive employment data number, which in today’s case will be on or above the consensus of 690,000. An encouraging number of new jobs created during the month of June will strengthen the case for earlier tapering of the ongoing monetary stimulus, offering more support to the greenback. Conversely, a figure falling short of expectations will diminish the scope for further dollar gains in the short-term.

Ricardo Evangelista – Senior analyst, ActivTrades

daily market analysis


Oil is trading almost flat during the early part of Friday’s session, having reached a fresh multi-year high during the previous session, following a last-minute disagreement amongst OPEC members that delayed a decision on increasing output levels by an estimated 400,000 barrels per day. Officials from member countries will reconvene today and attempt to bridge the difference. Should they fail, further price spikes will be likely as the current supply is insufficient to meet the growing demand.

Ricardo Evangelista – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades


Share markets continue to edge higher on Friday with the gains driven by the travel & leisure sector and carmakers, amid positive news on the vaccine front as well as anticipation of positive key macro data. While positive developments about the efficiency of vaccines against the fast-spreading Delta variant are helping sustain market sentiment, all eyes will be on the US today. Investors will closely analyse both unemployment rate data and the highly anticipated jobs report to get a better idea of what could be the next policy move from the Fed. However, with mounting inflation and the strong economic recovery evidenced by the recent batch of data, investors are already pricing taper talks to start soon as well as a new cycle of rate hikes starting no later than next year. In other words, the real surprise today would be brought by numbers falling short below expectations, which would keep chances of an extended stimulus policy alive and drive stock indices to new highs.

Pierre Veyret– Technical analyst, ActivTrades

Disclaimer: opinions are personal to the authors and do not reflect the opinions of LeapRate. This is not a trading advice.

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