Financial Markets Analysis provided by Eric Chia, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness.
What to Watch
Nvidia: Gross margins on the Blackwell and Vera Rubin platforms, and any signs of regulatory scrutiny over its OpenAI relationship.
Apple & Meta: Early sales and user engagement data for smart glasses. Apple’s upcoming “Project Linwood” Siri upgrade will be a key signal of AI maturity.
Meta (EU): Legal rulings in Spain and France in late 2025 could redefine its entire European business model.
Macro: Watch U.S. non-farm payrolls. Sustained weakness could heighten recession risk and shift investor focus from valuation optimism to earnings deterioration.
NVIDIA’s AI Empire: Solidifying the Moat or Building a House of Cards?
Nvidia recently announced a strategic cooperation intent, planning to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. This investment is closely linked to the deployment of at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems, aimed at supporting OpenAI’s next-generation AI infrastructure, with the first phase using its Vera Rubin platform by 2026. This is not just an investment; it’s a self-reinforcing business cycle. Nvidia provides funding to OpenAI, and OpenAI then uses these funds to purchase Nvidia’s core products (GPUs, networking systems), thereby effectively securing a large and long-term order channel, injecting strong momentum into both parties’ revenue growth.
Strategically, this move also helps Nvidia defend its moat by discouraging OpenAI from developing its own chips or turning to rivals like Broadcom, which already has a $10 billion order from OpenAI.
This investment can also be seen as a defensive move, aimed at preventing OpenAI from developing its own custom chips or deepening its cooperation with competitors like Broadcom, with whom OpenAI has already signed a $10 billion order.
Apple’s Pragmatic Shift: From Vision to Sight
Apple is reportedly pausing development of the next Vision Pro to focus on AI-powered smart glasses. The Vision Pro’s steep price, limited ecosystem, and physical constraints have curbed mass-market appeal.
This pivot signals Apple’s pragmatic realization: the path to mainstream adoption lies in lighter, more accessible devices. The company is now developing two models — a simpler iPhone-linked version and a standalone display model competing directly with Meta’s Ray-Ban line.
The move doesn’t abandon spatial computing; it redefines it. Apple’s challenge now is to prove it can turn “Apple Intelligence” into a truly competitive AI platform rather than a catch-up effort against Google and OpenAI.
Meta’s Ambitious: Software to hardware while defending the core.
Meta remains ahead in the consumer AI hardware race. Its partnership with Ray-Ban has already produced multiple smart glass generations, with the latest Ray-Ban Display priced around $800.
But while it leads in innovation, Meta faces existential threats in Europe. Over 80 Spanish media companies have filed a €550 million lawsuit, joined by similar actions in France. Its “consent or pay” model also faces scrutiny under the GDPR and Digital Services Act (DSA).
For Meta, hardware isn’t just a growth strategy — it’s survival. The company’s advertising-based revenue model is under attack, pushing it to build new ecosystems where it controls data rules and monetization. Smart glasses and AR platforms could become its next self-contained universe, shielding it from Europe’s tightening regulations.
Microsoft’s Quiet Restructuring for the Future of its AI Center
While Apple and Meta race for consumer dominance, Microsoft is fortifying its position through structural change.
The company has reshuffled leadership, appointing Judson Althoff to lead commercial operations so Satya Nadella can focus on AI architecture and product innovation. Meanwhile, Pavan Davuluri now oversees all Windows engineering — a move designed to accelerate the shift toward an “Agentic OS”, an AI-driven system that performs tasks autonomously.
Rather than chase new hardware, Microsoft is embedding AI deeply into its core businesses — Azure, Windows, and Microsoft 365. Its success will be measured by Azure AI consumption, Copilot subscriptions, and higher enterprise license value. It’s a defensive yet powerful approach: using AI to reinforce, not reinvent, its trillion-dollar ecosystem.
USTEC reached the 100% Fibonacci Extension at around 24955 before retracing. The index awaits a potential breakout from the range of 24800-24955.
If USTEC breaks above 24955, the index may test the 161% Fibonacci Extension at around 25265.
Conversely, returning below 24700-24800 may lead to a retest of EMA21 and the channel’s lower bound.
Nasdaq’s Balancing Act
The Nasdaq 100 recently reached the 100% Fibonacci Extension around 24,955 before retracing. The index is now consolidating between 24,800–24,955, awaiting a breakout.
A move above 24,955 could open the way toward the 161% Fibonacci Extension at 25,265.
A drop below 24,700–24,800 could lead to a retest of the EMA21 and the channel’s lower boundary.
The index’s performance will ultimately reflect how these competing forces play out:
Nvidia’s infrastructure investments fueling AI demand.
Apple and Meta’s hardware rivalry defining the next consumer platform.
