Wednesday is the big day this week for dollar-yen, with advance quarterly GDP data from the USA coming ahead of the FOMC’s meeting. Very poor data is already priced in but how the Fed interprets the figures might be key for ongoing direction in the latter part of the week.
Key data points
- Wednesday 29 April, 12.30 GMT: American quarterly GDP growth (Q1, advance) – consensus -4%, previous 2.1%
- Wednesday 29 April, from 18.00 GMT: meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
- Wednesday 29 April, 23.50 GMT: Japanese industrial production (March, preliminary) – consensus -5.2%, previous -0.3%
- Wednesday 29 April, 23.50 GMT: Japanese annual retail sales (March) – consensus -4.7%, previous 1.7%
- Thursday 30 April, 5.00 GMT: Japanese consumer confidence (April) – consensus 22.3, previous 30.9
- Thursday 30 April, 12.30 GMT: American personal income (March) – consensus -1.5%, previous 0.6%
- Thursday 30 April, 12.30 GMT: American personal spending (March) – consensus -5%, previous 0.2%
- Thursday 30 April, 12.30 GMT: initial jobless claims (25 Apr) – consensus 3.5 million, previous 4.43 million
- Friday 1 May, 12.30 GMT: ISM manufacturing PMI (April) – consensus 36.7, previous 49.1
USOIL, four-hour
Oil futures touched negative prices for the first time in history early last week, with spot CFDs on USOIL reflecting this development. The key factor remains the ongoing collapse in demand for crude oil around the world and the sluggish response of many producers to this. The main questions for the fundamentals of crude now are how quickly the remaining producers can (at least) scale production down dramatically and, perhaps more importantly, to what extent more countries will start relaxing their lockdowns over the next few weeks.
Repeated testing of the 38.2% area of the Fibonacci fan in the first half of April has now decisively failed, so from a technical point of view the picture is very negative. The latest lows below were the lowest prices ever recorded for spot CFDs on USOIL. This week’s regular stock data will probably provide more impetus either for the current retracement upward or more losses and a possible retest of .50.
Key data points
- Tuesday 28 April, 20.30 GMT: API crude oil stock change (24 Apr) – previous 13.23 million
- Wednesday 29 April, 14.30 GMT: EIA crude oil stock change (24 Apr) – previous 15.02 million
Gold-dollar, four-hour
Being another haven, the general picture for XAU-USD is fairly similar to USD-JPY. The yellow metal has generally held its gains against most currencies as markets seem to expect more stimulus from central banks and still do not expect a quick recovery by shares and indices from recent selloffs. With interest rates around the world approaching zero or already there in many cases, the traditional yield-based reasons for eschewing gold are basically absent.
The clearest support to the downside in the short term is the psychological area of ,700, which coincides fairly closely with the 50 SMA from Bands. Price has now moved out of overbought based on the slow stochastic, so another upward wave remains possible over the next week or so; buying volume is also extremely high compared with late March and early April. The Fed’s meeting on Wednesday night is the key event that might drive movement for gold this week.
Key data points
- Wednesday 29 April, 12.30 GMT: American quarterly GDP growth (Q1, advance) – consensus -4%, previous 2.1%
- Wednesday 29 April, from 18.00 GMT: meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
- Thursday 30 April, 12.30 GMT: American personal income (March) – consensus -1.5%, previous 0.6%
- Thursday 30 April, 12.30 GMT: American personal spending (March) – consensus -5%, previous 0.2%
- Thursday 30 April, 12.30 GMT: initial jobless claims (25 Apr) – consensus 3.5 million, previous 4.43 million
- Friday 1 May, 12.30 GMT: ISM manufacturing PMI (April) – consensus 36.7, previous 49.1
Disclaimer: opinions are personal to the author and do not reflect the opinions of Exness or LeapRate.
