The June flash PMIs split the major economies cleanly; the US accelerated to a five-month high as Germany sank to a 43-month low and the UK turned to contraction. The divergence underwrites the same higher-for-longer Fed stance now pressing on gold.
The US composite rose to 52.2, above the 51.2 consensus, with manufacturing at 55.7, its strongest in 49 months. The detail is less comfortable; factory employment fell at the sharpest pace outside the 2020 shock since the financial crisis, even as output surged, and S&P Global put the implied second-quarter growth pace near 1% annualised. A strong header over a softening labour line.
Germany’s composite fell to 46.8 from 48.1, a 43-month low. The UK was weaker still; services activity contracted for the first time since April 2025, manufacturing new orders hit a six-month low, and total private-sector output fell at its steepest pace of the year.
For the rate read the split is the point. US resilience gives the Fed cover to hold its line, while euro-area and UK softness widens the growth and policy gap; that is dollar-supportive.
