AUDUSD’s uptrend seems to be resuming at the time of writing on the daily chart considering highs on 3 September and 20 and 28 October. The 50 SMA from Bands is about to complete a golden cross above the 100 SMA, but the 200 SMA is still an important resistance which the price is currently testing. Between this and overbought based on the slow stochastic (15, 5, 5), a sustained round of gains this week doesn’t seem likely unless the news and data strongly favour the Aussie dollar.
Key data this week
Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol; bold red indicates a release of critical importance to most markets.
Tuesday 2 November
- 30 GMT: interest rate from the Reserve Bank of Australia
- 00 GMT: Australian Markit service PMI (final, October) – consensus 52, previous 45.5
- 00 GMT: Australian Markit composite PMI (final, October) – consensus 52.2, previous 46
Wednesday 3 November
- 15 GMT: ADP employment change (October) – consensus 400,000, previous 568,000
- from 18.00 GMT: statement and press conference of the Federal Open Market Committee
Thursday 4 November
- 30 GMT: Australian balance of trade (September) – consensus A$12.2 billion, previous A$15.08 billion
- 30 GMT: Australian retail sales (final, September) – consensus 1.3%, previous negative 1.7%
- 30 GMT: American balance of trade (September) – consensus negative $80.3 billion, previous negative $73.3 billion
Friday 5 November
- 30 GMT: statement on monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia
- 30 GMT: non-farm payrolls (October) – consensus 413,000, previous 194,000
- 30 GMT: American unemployment rate (October) – consensus 4.7%, previous 4.8%
- 30 GMT: American annual average hourly earnings (October) – consensus 4.9%, previous 4.6%
Pound sterling-New Zealand dollar, daily
The pound declined sharply last month against the Kiwi dollar as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its cash rate on 6 October, the first major central bank to do so since the ‘race to zero’ last year, while the Bank of England is now perceived to be somewhat less hawkish than it had seemed in August and September. Projections for the British economy are fairly strong, with expected growth for the full year of 2021 revised higher and unemployment further down according to Rishi Sunak; however, the current standoff with France over fishing rights in the Channel has dented sentiment on the pound somewhat. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to hike its rate again this month.
The 61.8% zone of the weekly Fibonacci fan around .90 seems to be a strong support from which a small intraday bounce was observed on Monday around noon GMT. The current rate just above that area is a low of about eight months, and with the stochastic clearly oversold since the middle of October, a bounce seems to be possible this week if the data and news from the BoE align. The other main possibility is another leg down with no clear support until $1.87, December 2020’s low. Volatility is very likely to be high this week but the releases could also determine the extent and timing of possible ongoing losses.
Key data this week
Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.
Tuesday 2 November
- 45 GMT: New Zealand unemployment rate (Q3) – consensus 3.9%, previous 4%
- 45 GMT: New Zealand quarterly employment change (Q3) – consensus 0.4%, previous 1%
Wednesday 3 November
- 30 GMT: British Markit/CIPS composite PMI (final, October) – consensus 56.8, previous 54.9
- 30 GMT: British Markit/CIPS service PMI (final, October) – consensus 58, previous 55.4
Thursday 4 November
- from 12.00 GMT: statement and press conference of the Bank of England
Disclaimer: opinions are personal to the author and do not reflect the opinions of Exness or LeapRate.
