Data from UK online financial trading firm IG Group Holdings plc (LON:IGG) and its political trading market indicate that the Conservative’s chances of winning are narrowing, but they are still expected to win a healthy majority in this Thursday’s upcoming UK election.
In general the IG market has reacted to the latest polling data – so as the polls have narrowed the Conservatives seat prices have dropped and the Labour seats has risen. Give that polls are giving such divergent opinion on the potential outcome it has been hard for traders to take any conclusive findings from them.
However, Labour still trail mightily based on where traders are putting their money. And, their overall fortunes si somewhere similar to where they were when the UK election campaign began in mid April.
The IG general election seats market allows traders to buy and sell the total amount of seats each party could win. Current betting is as follows:
- Conservatives – 368 seats (gain of 38 seats). This price is back where the market initially started when the election was called. It rallied in the early part of the campaign to a high of 398 but has been falling ever since the manifesto launch and the social care U-turn
- Labour – 203 seats (loss of 26 seats). This price is near all time highs in the market. Labour’s chances have been seen to recover ever since they launched their manifesto.
- Liberal Democrats –11 seats (gain of 2 seats). Have been in freefall ever since the market started at a high of 35 seats. Have constantly seen sellers of Lib Dems since the campaign got underway.
- Scottish National Party – 46 seats (loss of 8 seats). Have been in this range since May, high of 51 the week the election was called.
These prices would lead to a Conservative majority of about 86Â seats giving Theresa May a strong mandate.
This is one of three markets IG is offering for the 2017 UK general election. They are available to trade on the new IG trading platform and all trading apps across phone and tablet.